US Mid Term Election Prediction - II

A lot has changed in the 3 weeks since i made my predictions about Tuesday's US mid term elections.

If you listen to the pundits, the Republican wave has been building.  Some (such as Dick Morris) speak of 100 Democrat congressional seats being in play.  Recent polls have shown a marginal improvement for
Democrats as some races that were toss ups have moved to leaning Democrat.

Strangely, the recent election of Rob Ford as Mayor of Toronto leads me to think that I may have been wrong to predict a narrow Republican victory.   Rob Ford's candidacy was similar to many of the so called "Tea party" candidates that have shocked the two party establishment by knocking off incumbent Republicans in primaries (such as Senator Bennett of Utah and Murkowski of Alaska.  Tea party candidates were often unconventional and politically incorrect.  They are not polished and come across as more than a little amateurish......yet they have won some races that they really shouldn't have.

The phenomenon that put Rob Ford in the Mayor's office and Scott Brown into Ted Kennedy's Senate seat is an expression of widespread voter anger.  Many of the establishment politicians seem to have been a little slow in recognizing (and harnessing) this anger.  The voters are angry and the anger will generate high turnout amongst the most aggrieved.

The people should be angry.  They have seen their tax dollars go to bailing out auto workers who earn much more than the average American or Canadian.  They have seen their taxes bailing out Wall Street bankers....nuff said on that one.

If current trends hold then the Republicans should sweep into power in the House and perhaps even the Senate.  The GOP leadership should be careful in what they wish for.  If they are thinking ahead to 2012, then it might be better for them if they don't take the Senate.  When the GOP took over both houses in 1994, the subsequent conflicts raised the standing of Bill Clinton and helped him get re-elected a short 2 years later.  

If Obama loses the ability to push his projects through Congress, then he will be left to make speeches.  Obama's is a great speaker and the more speeches he gives (combined with fewer policy initiatives, the more likely his re-election.

Obama was not particularly good at managing the public perception of his policies:  

• The right hated Health Care reform and the left was furious that he took the public option off the table so early.  
• The left doesn't like the fact that he is 'surging' another 30,000 troops into Afghanistan while the right complained that he took 8 months to make that decision.

Bill Clinton was actually liberated by the loss of Congress in 1994.  When the Liberal base was in the minority, he made deals with Gingrich and his gang to pass welfare reform and NAFTA.  These became his signature accomplishments.  

The GOP should count their blessings if they don't get the Senate and the House had best get to work on pushing substantive legislation rather than another shutdown of the Federal government.  If they are smart, they will coopt many Democratic agenda items such as Climate Change and Health Care reform. 

Conservatives don't favour pollution and they don't like the idea of people dying for lack of Health Care.  There is a lot of fertile ground for them to make real proposals.  They should do so with haste.

Final Prediction

GOP wins north of 50 seats in the House and the Senate is a 50-50 saw off.

Mayor Rob Ford

So now it appears that Toronto has elected Councillor Rob Ford as Mayor in a landslide.

I wrote about the Mayoral election on Aug 23rd when it appeared that Ford was the clear frontrunner in a field of poor candidates.  Since that time former Deputy Premier George Smitherman has been endorsed by the Toronto Star (predictable) and the Globe and Mail (sadly also predictable).  The editorial boards and columnists have been agog at the possibility that the people might elect Councillor Ford.

Heather Mallick of the Toronto Star wrote on Sept 20 that Rob Ford was an "angry, pink faced man with an oversized head."  She also described his supporters as a "monstrous regiment of angry, old, white, male voters." She compared voting for Ford to "sleeping with someone to get revenge on your spouse."

Really does Heather Mallick call herself a journalist?  Those comments are not reporting and they are not fit for the editorial page either.  She is just plain offensive....much like Rob Ford!

The self appointed intellects all hated the idea of Rob Ford as Mayor.  I can't stand Rob Ford.  I do think he is a buffoon....a worthy successor to the legacy of Mel Lastman and frankly a worthy successor to the polished intellectual buffoon David Miller.

I can't speak for anyone else but I found the media attacks against Rob Ford offensive and patronizing to the voters.  It might have pushed some more voters into the Ford column....the media onslaught certainly didn't seem to have helped the former front runner George Smitherman.

Democracy is flawed.  Whether you voted for Bob Rae or Mike Harris, you have reason to agree after those two gentlemen were elected Premier of Ontario.

US November Election Predictions

Now that there are mere weeks to go before American voters get to pass a midterm judgment on the Obama Presidency, I will make some predictions.

First some observations.

I am still amazed that the nation that calls itself the Leader of the Free World still has so many shortcomings in the practice of Democracy.  In the last midterms of 2006, 34 members of Congress ran unopposed by a major party candidate.  People like to say that it is a two party system......well in that case i would expect at least two candidates in each district.  34 members ran unopposed, far more ran with only token opposition.

Gerrymandering (both racial and simply partisan) have created a wealth of safe districts where the incumbent only ever faces a threat in the party primary.  George Will called this the ultimate perversion of Democracy....a system where politicians choose their voters rather than the voters choosing their politician.

A Republican tide has been predicted by most commentators.  Most predictions call for gains that exceed those of the 1994 election that ended 44 years of Democratic majority rule in the House.  In 1994 not a single incumbent Republican Congressman, Senator or Governor was defeated.

However some key differences are worth noting.  While many pundits are saying that Obama and Clinton both overreached in the first two years of their mandate, Clinton was elected with 43% of the popular vote.  Obama won 52%.  This is a key difference since the Perot voters did not have a candidate in the race in 94.  Obama voters do.

In 1994, the Republican landslide was a shock to everyone.  Virtually nobody saw it coming.  In 1994 the Speaker of the House lost his own district.  The Chairman of the Ways and Means Committee also got voted out along with several incumbents who did not even commission polls because they thought that they were so safe.  This time, Democrats are putting resources into races where defeat was previously unthinkable....such as Representative Barney Franks of Massachusetts.

This year everyone sees the wave coming and so the Democrats have time to batten down the hatches.

I am surprised and perplexed at the Democrats for their lack of message.  The signature achievement of the first two years of Obama's term is Health Care Reform.  A complex measure like this has many good and bad points.  Everybody knows that the Democrats passed it with only token Republican support.  Why are they running away from it rather than emphasizing the good points?  By ceding the fight, they have allowed the Republicans to paint Health Care reform as 'unpopular'.....and by doing so it becomes a huge negative.  A plethora of news stories point out that Dems are not even mentioning health care in their campaigns.   People...you passed it now take the credit for the good points!!!  If they were going to act like they needed to hang their heads in shame upon passing it then they shouldn't have voted for it.

The President's party loses seats in the midterms generally speaking.  George W Bush bucked this trend in 2002 in the wake of 9-11 but it generally holds true.

My prediction:

1) The Republicans will gain control of the House by a slim margin.....they will not win the 100 seats that some are predicting.
2) The Republicans will gain 9 Senate seats to create an evenly balanced Senate.  VP Joe Biden breaks ties so this means that Dems effectively maintain control.

Most of the Democrats who are voted out will be Conservative Democrats and as such the agenda for Congress will not change much.  The more interesting thing to watch for is whether this new crop of Republicans will actually produce someone who is a viable Presidential candidate.  Nobody had heard of Barack Obama until he won election to the Senate in 2004.

The Republicans had best hope so because none of Sara Palin, Mitt Romney, Mike Huckabee or Newt Gingrich are electable.

Of course i could be very very wrong.  Considering that there was not a single African American Congressman who represented a majority white district......I didn't think that America was capable of electing a black man to be President.

Nobel Peace Prize Part II

The Chinese government has reacted to the Nobel Peace prize award by placing Liu Xiaobo's wife under house arrest.  Her 'crime' was informing her husband that he had won the Nobel Peace Prize.

While the newspapers have reported these facts, the international outrage has been muted.  Once this news cycle ends, this story is likely to be forgotten.

Some of us are old enough to remember the cultural, economic and diplomatic boycotts imposed against a nation that repressed 80% of their citizens due to the colour of their skin.  The boycotts worked and South Africa emerged as a democratic nation that has the highest living standard in sub-saharan Africa.

Why is a nation that represses nearly 100% of its citizens less deserving of outrage and condemnation?  Is it that important to keep getting cheap stuff at Walmart?

Twenty five years ago Artists United Against Apartheid released the following video.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=OjWENNe29qc

Today, Hollywood's silence is matched by the diplomatic corps to say nothing of the corporate world and the IOC.

Nobel Peace Prize Regains its Noble Purpose

Today the Nobel Committee awarded the Peace Prize to a jailed Chinese dissident who had the audacity to call for multi-party democracy in China.  As a younger man, he was a leader of the Tiananmen Square uprising.  He shepharded many students out of Tiananmen Square just prior to the tanks rolling in.

Liu Xiaobo is in jail and is unaware of the honour that he has received.  In fact most of China is unaware as State censors scrambled broadcasts of the ceremony as it was carried live by CNN and the BBC.

With this award, the Nobel Peace Prize regains much of the lustre that it had lost in recent years as unworthy recipients such as Barack Obama and Al Gore were honoured.

Mr Liu is a worthy addition to the pantheon that includes people such as Bishop Desmond Tutu and Mother Theresa who worked tirelessly to lift people out of oppression and poverty.  The Nobel Committee displayed great wisdom in honouring FW De Clerk alongside Nelson Mandela for jointly leading South Africa beyond Apartheid.  Many others were inspiring leaders for peace and justice who richly deserved their place.

The wisdom of this choice can be seen in the reaction of the Chinese government.  First they tried to preempt the award by threatening the government of Norway by calling it a hostile action.  After it was announced, they decried the awarding of such an honour upon a 'criminal.'  Humanity would be well served if only more such 'criminals' existed in our midst.

The world has moved on since Tiananmen Square and that is a stain upon humanity.  The Chinese nation suffers from less material poverty but threatens more of their neighbours militarily and more of the world economically.  Even the United States treads carefully lest they offend such a valuable trading partner. 

The images of tanks rolling over students were horrifying to the world.  How soon they forget. 

The most indelible image for me is of a lone student standing before the tanks. His courage and defiance should be remembered today.

Captain Robert Semrau - Update

Captain Semrau was found guilty of Disgraceful Conduct and today his sentence was handed down.  He was reduced in rank to 2nd Lieutenant and dismissed from the Armed Forces.

This was the right and just result.  From the evidence presented at trial he did not have murder on the mind.  The prosecution's own evidence indicated that it was a mercy killing.

It was still wrong but it was not murder. 

Now Robert Semrau can go about rebuilding his life as a civilian.  His case should serve as a lesson to serving members of the military.  Doing the right thing is difficult.  As an officer he needed to follow orders which did not include killing a wounded combatant....even as an act of mercy.

It is especially important that the difficult issues that this case presented did not cause the system to take a pass on rendering judgment.

Good luck to Robert Semrau as he gets on with life.  His actions may yet serve to make the Canadian military a better place.