I have voted Conservative for all of my adult life. There are few voters who are more reliably Conservative. I am deeply disappointed with the Conservative party's recent moves in Ottawa and Queen's Park.
Today the Conservatives tabled their first budget since winning a majority of the seats in the House of Commons. Many rank and file Conservatives were willing to cut Harper some slack while he was leading a minority Government. After all, how bold could he be when the opposition parties could bring him down at any time?
This budget did two noteworthy things. It raised the age for drawing the public pension to 67 from 65 and cut departmental spending by $5.2 billion.
This government deserves credit for raising the retirement age. At the time that the age of 65 was set, the average lifespan was 67 and Canada's working age population was growing rapidly. Today, the average lifespan is pushing 80 and our working age population is simply not keeping pace with the population of retirees. However this change is being phased in beginning with the year 2023...AFTER the bulk of the baby boomers have retired. While raising the retirement age is long overdue and they deserve credit for taking a step in the right direction, this is far too timid a change.
We don't know the details of the 5.2 billion dollars in spending cuts but we do know that the deficit is projected to be over $20 billion for next year. This is 20 billion dollars on top of the 23 billion dollar deficit we will run this year. In these two years alone, that amounts to $1400 per Canadian being passed on as debt to future generations. This is unacceptable.
What this budget did not do was reverse one of the Conservative government's most dubious moves. The minority Harper government of 2006 & 2008 reduced the GST from 7% to 5%. This one move alone is responsible for $11 billion of the current year's deficit according to the Globe and Mail. The Mulroney government brought in the GST and the Liberals campaigned against it. Once in office the Liberals realized that it would be irresponsible to get rid of it or even to cut the rate. Harper thought otherwise and has cut it by 2%. I had hoped that he might reverse this move once he got a majority....I sit disappointed since the debt being passed on to future generations could be much lower.
Tim Hudak is another disappointment. During the last election he came across as a lightweight and mistakes were not hard to find. Still he did manage to deny McGuinty a majority. McGuinty delivered a budget knowing that he needed at least one of the two other parties to support him to avoid triggering another election. So does Hudak use his leverage to wring some concessions from McGuinty? No of course not. He declares right away that he will oppose the budget....hence strengthening the hand of the NDP and making himself as irrelevant as if he were the Opposition leader facing a majority government. Why doesn't he realize that he could have accomplished something by playing ball with McGuinty? Why does he want a more left leaning budget which would be the result of NDP support. He just doesn't seem to get it.
Maybe I don't get it....but the Harper budget isn't materially better than a Paul Martin budget....it might even be worse. Hudak has ensured that the Ontario budget that eventually passes will reflect more NDP priorities than Conservative priorities. Each has chosen to take the easy path....also known as the wrong path.
Friday, March 30, 2012
Thursday, March 22, 2012
Opposition Follies
This weekend will see the election of a leader of Her Majesty's Loyal Opposition when the NDP elects a leader to replace the late Jack Layton. This will be a welcome development.
At this point in time, the opposition benches consist of 142 Members of Parliament consisting of 103 NDP members, 34 Liberals, 4 members of the Bloc Quebecois and a single member of the Green Party.
Of these 4 opposition parties the only permanent leader of a party sitting in the Commons is Green Party Leader Elizabeth May who presides over a caucus of one.
The two leading parties are both the subject of leadership squabbles.
In the case of the NDP, it is a formal leadership contest. The establishment has supported a backroom organizer named Brian Topp while the grassroots seems to be supporting Quebec Liberal turned NDP MP Thomas Mulcair. The election of Topp would endanger the half of the NDP caucus that was elected in Quebec...or so we are told. The election of Mulcair would prevent the NDP from making gains in the rest of Canada which would be necessary to form a government. Besides we are told that Tom Mulcair is not a very nice man. People seem to have forgotten that Jack Layton was not always "smiling Jack." (When he ran for mayor of Toronto against June Rowlands, he came across like an angry, bitter person attacking an old woman. He lost.)
The Liberal leadership question carries far more historical baggage. For a couple of generations the Liberal party has actually been two parties that cooperate only during elections. The left leaning wing of the party had Pierre Trudeau who begat Jean Chretien who begat Bob Rae. The right wing had Lester Pearson who begat John Turner who begat Paul Martin who begat Michael Ignatieff. Liberal leadership squabbles are nothing new. New Leader John Turner was perpetually pulling knives out of his back with Chretien's finger prints on them. Even electoral success was no salve for this constant squabbling. Chretien won three consecutive majorities but the Martin camp dispatched him in a bloodless coup.
When Stephane Dion inspired the grassroots to elect him over the choice of both camps....the knives were out from both establishment camps. He didn't have a chance. Looking back one wonders if the earnest, professorial Dion might not have done better in a rematch against Prime Minister Harper....he could hardly have done worse.
Reading the tea leaves, it seems that the Liberal establishment will leave Bob Rae in charge and make him the permanent leader. After all, it is the Trudeau-Chretien wing's turn. It also means that Rae will follow Ignatieff as the second consecutive leader who was acclaimed rather than elected. Ignatieff was savaged by the Conservatives for running for Prime Minister of a country in which he had not lived for most of his adult life. The Conservatives will surely say something similar about a life long Socialist who switched parties in a grab at power.
The only place in which polls have moved significantly since the last election is Quebec. The Bloc has recovered some of their support and it seems to be a 4 way race in Quebec. However the Conservatives can lose all 6 of their Quebec seats and still have a majority government. A resurgent Bloc combined with a fading NDP might actually result in more Conservative MP's due to vote splitting.
Taking this all into account, it is hard to see any party challenging the Conservative majority in 3 years time. Rookie leaders often have difficulties...Paul Martin, Steven Harper, Ignatieff and Dion are all good examples.
Harper will win by default....and that will be very bad for Canadian Democracy. Politicians of every stripe get increasingly arrogant and corrupt as they hold onto power longer. Without an effective opposition holding the government's feet to the fire, I fear that bad government will result.
The robo call scandal appears to be a tempest in a teapot. At this point, it appears that this "scandal" affects a few hundred voters in one riding that the Tories lost. It doesn't appear (at this point) to have been a coordinated attempt at voter suppression. That the opposition parties can do more than make a big ruckus about his while tweeting public records of a Minister's acrimonious divorce shows how ineffective the opposition is. Perhaps they might try attacking government policies?
Canada is in a period of one party rule due to an opposition in disarray. This was not a good thing when Chretien was in power and it is not a good thing now. Despite my Conservative leanings, I do hope that the opposition gets their act together. I am not optimistic.
At this point in time, the opposition benches consist of 142 Members of Parliament consisting of 103 NDP members, 34 Liberals, 4 members of the Bloc Quebecois and a single member of the Green Party.
Of these 4 opposition parties the only permanent leader of a party sitting in the Commons is Green Party Leader Elizabeth May who presides over a caucus of one.
The two leading parties are both the subject of leadership squabbles.
In the case of the NDP, it is a formal leadership contest. The establishment has supported a backroom organizer named Brian Topp while the grassroots seems to be supporting Quebec Liberal turned NDP MP Thomas Mulcair. The election of Topp would endanger the half of the NDP caucus that was elected in Quebec...or so we are told. The election of Mulcair would prevent the NDP from making gains in the rest of Canada which would be necessary to form a government. Besides we are told that Tom Mulcair is not a very nice man. People seem to have forgotten that Jack Layton was not always "smiling Jack." (When he ran for mayor of Toronto against June Rowlands, he came across like an angry, bitter person attacking an old woman. He lost.)
The Liberal leadership question carries far more historical baggage. For a couple of generations the Liberal party has actually been two parties that cooperate only during elections. The left leaning wing of the party had Pierre Trudeau who begat Jean Chretien who begat Bob Rae. The right wing had Lester Pearson who begat John Turner who begat Paul Martin who begat Michael Ignatieff. Liberal leadership squabbles are nothing new. New Leader John Turner was perpetually pulling knives out of his back with Chretien's finger prints on them. Even electoral success was no salve for this constant squabbling. Chretien won three consecutive majorities but the Martin camp dispatched him in a bloodless coup.
When Stephane Dion inspired the grassroots to elect him over the choice of both camps....the knives were out from both establishment camps. He didn't have a chance. Looking back one wonders if the earnest, professorial Dion might not have done better in a rematch against Prime Minister Harper....he could hardly have done worse.
Reading the tea leaves, it seems that the Liberal establishment will leave Bob Rae in charge and make him the permanent leader. After all, it is the Trudeau-Chretien wing's turn. It also means that Rae will follow Ignatieff as the second consecutive leader who was acclaimed rather than elected. Ignatieff was savaged by the Conservatives for running for Prime Minister of a country in which he had not lived for most of his adult life. The Conservatives will surely say something similar about a life long Socialist who switched parties in a grab at power.
The only place in which polls have moved significantly since the last election is Quebec. The Bloc has recovered some of their support and it seems to be a 4 way race in Quebec. However the Conservatives can lose all 6 of their Quebec seats and still have a majority government. A resurgent Bloc combined with a fading NDP might actually result in more Conservative MP's due to vote splitting.
Taking this all into account, it is hard to see any party challenging the Conservative majority in 3 years time. Rookie leaders often have difficulties...Paul Martin, Steven Harper, Ignatieff and Dion are all good examples.
Harper will win by default....and that will be very bad for Canadian Democracy. Politicians of every stripe get increasingly arrogant and corrupt as they hold onto power longer. Without an effective opposition holding the government's feet to the fire, I fear that bad government will result.
The robo call scandal appears to be a tempest in a teapot. At this point, it appears that this "scandal" affects a few hundred voters in one riding that the Tories lost. It doesn't appear (at this point) to have been a coordinated attempt at voter suppression. That the opposition parties can do more than make a big ruckus about his while tweeting public records of a Minister's acrimonious divorce shows how ineffective the opposition is. Perhaps they might try attacking government policies?
Canada is in a period of one party rule due to an opposition in disarray. This was not a good thing when Chretien was in power and it is not a good thing now. Despite my Conservative leanings, I do hope that the opposition gets their act together. I am not optimistic.
Monday, March 12, 2012
Robocalls and Elections
I wasn't sure what to make of the robo-call controversy where Liberal votes were allegedly suppressed via robocalls that directed voters to the wrong polling stations.
The media were as quick as ever to jump in and fan the flames of controversy. We have heard that as many as 30 ridings were affected....however it should be noted that some newspapers asked their readers to report to them if they received robocalls during the last election.
http://www.thestar.com/news/canada/politics/article/1137496--did-you-get-a-mysterious-robo-call-during-last-year-s-federal-election
Such a request is sure to draw out complaints that have nothing to do with voter suppression so the report of 30,000 complaints being made to Elections Canada should be taken with a grain of salt until the facts come out.
At this point it appears that there is a smoking gun in only one riding. If it turns out that it was a campaign that was widespread enough to stain the election results....then the Prime Minister should dissolve Parliament and call an election. If however it turns out to have happened only in Guelph where the Liberals won in any case.....then the result should be criminal prosecution of those responsible.
A basic question for me is whether robo-calls can be banned entirely. Since they do deal with a political issue, such expressions do get a greater level of charter protection....however I don't think many people would view a computer dialed phone call with a recorded message as anything other than annoying.
If it passes Charter muster, I'd love to see robocalls banned entirely.
The media were as quick as ever to jump in and fan the flames of controversy. We have heard that as many as 30 ridings were affected....however it should be noted that some newspapers asked their readers to report to them if they received robocalls during the last election.
http://www.thestar.com/news/canada/politics/article/1137496--did-you-get-a-mysterious-robo-call-during-last-year-s-federal-election
Such a request is sure to draw out complaints that have nothing to do with voter suppression so the report of 30,000 complaints being made to Elections Canada should be taken with a grain of salt until the facts come out.
At this point it appears that there is a smoking gun in only one riding. If it turns out that it was a campaign that was widespread enough to stain the election results....then the Prime Minister should dissolve Parliament and call an election. If however it turns out to have happened only in Guelph where the Liberals won in any case.....then the result should be criminal prosecution of those responsible.
A basic question for me is whether robo-calls can be banned entirely. Since they do deal with a political issue, such expressions do get a greater level of charter protection....however I don't think many people would view a computer dialed phone call with a recorded message as anything other than annoying.
If it passes Charter muster, I'd love to see robocalls banned entirely.
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