Tom Mulcair's Captain Canada Moment

Tomorrow an election will be called in the Province of Quebec. Election day will be Sept 4th according to the reports.

Federal politicians will mostly steer clear of any involvement in this Provincial election:

The Conservatives have (almost literally) a handful of seats in Quebec. They could lose all 5 and still govern with a majority. They have no upside by getting involved. Besides, Stephen Harper is really not very popular in Quebec. Staying away might be the most helpful thing he could do.

The Liberals (despite sharing the same handle as the Provincial Government) really do not have any upside in getting involved. Besides which, they don't have a permanent leader or any real direction yet.

The separatist Bloc Quebecois will support their Provincial brethren but that hardly matters since the Bloc was reduced to 4 seats in Quebec. That's even less than Stephen Harper won and he is supposedly hostile to Quebec!!

This vacuum presents a rather unique opportunity for Tom Mulcair as leader of her Majesty's Loyal Opposition. He can play Captain Canada and actually strike a blow against the Separatist movement as well as position himself as a true Prime Minister in waiting.

Canada has effectively been a country with one party rule since Stephen Harper was first elected Prime Minister. The Conservatives have been winning (almost) by default. A series of hapless opponents made a Conservative victory virtually inevitable.

Quebec's Provincial elections usually amount to a battle between the Liberals holding the Canada banner with the Parti Quebecois holding the Separatist banner. However Charest has been in power for 9 years and the scars are showing. He might be due for a fall and the rise of the PQ would almost certainly lead to another wrenching referendum on separation for Quebec.

While the NDP (under Jack Layton) swept the Province at the Federal level, polls show that separatism is far from dead. Quebec voted for Layton's NDP to oppose Harper. However the reality is that the NDP is a tough sell in the rest of Canada. English Canada is not generally that left of centre and Ontario still bears the bad memories of the one time the NDP governed this province.

Tom Mulcair should step into the breach and carry the Federalist banner alongside Jean Charest. He is the only federal leader who could do so with helpful consequences. Like the Parti Quebecois, his party is left of centre. He can make the case that Quebec's social programs would NOT be helped by cutting themselves off from Canadian transfer payments.(an obvious point that has surprisingly little traction amongst Quebec voters). Tom Mulcair can make the case that it is possible to oppose the Conservatives while still remaining in Canada.

If Mulcair were to pull this off, he would see his popularity soar....in the rest of Canada. Showing leadership on the national unity file would draw a clear line of distinction with the Conservatives. Defeating the PQ is something that Canadians from coast to coast would cheer. Mulcair would be positioned to win the next federal election.

The question is....does he have the will and sense of timing to make it happen.