Election Time in Canada (Part 2)

So we are halfway through the election campaign.  As both French and English debates are done, we are more than halfway done in terms of significant milestones.

At this point, I don't see any reason to change my prediction that it will be a Conservative majority.  The followup coverage of the english language debate was interesting.  Michael Ignatieff's performance in the debate has been the subject of increasingly negative reviews in the media.  (this is just my impression)

Current projections call for a Conservative win that falls just shy of a majority mandate.  I think that this is wrong due primarily to an interesting trend in Quebec.  Before the Tory breakthrough in Quebec a couple of elections ago, Quebec was a battle between the Bloc and the Liberals.  It wasn't much of a battle really, the Liberals won a bunch of ridings in Montreal and the Bloc took the rest.  The rise of the Tories around Quebec city (which was cemented in the last election) changed that dynamic.  The rise of the NDP, beginning with the election of Thomas Mulcair in a 2007 bye election, changes the dynamic further.

Up until now, politics in Quebec has been all about sovereignty.  The Bloc favours it and all other Federalist parties oppose it.  However there has been an underreported distinction as well.  The Bloc are a left of centre party.  Ideologically, social democrats in Quebec had nowhere to go but the Bloc.  The rise of the NDP changes that equation materially.  Another left of centre party allows francophone social democrats to vote for a party that is not committed to the breakup of Canada.

The NDP needs a massive surge in support to elect a large number of MP's in Quebec.  However, a modest surge in francophone support of the NDP may lead to the Bloc losing a number of close ridings.  A bump in the number of Liberal and Conservative MP's as well as a Tory majority may be the result.

Finally I cannot write without taking one shot at Michael Ignatieff....also known as Iggy the American.  Today he made an announcement before the cameras:  as Prime Minister, he would convene a health care summit meeting of First Ministers within 60 days of taking office.

He looked very serious as he announced that he would take the bold and decisive step of holding a meeting. It is a continuing story line that the more people see and hear of Ignatieff, the worse his prospects become.

Stephen Harper will win this election by default....I have seen nothing that would change my mind on this point.