Tuesday, December 29, 2009

History Denied

At one point both the New Orleans Saints and Indianapolis Colts were at 13-0 this season.  Sports reporters breathlessly reported on the "historic" season each team was on the verge of.  They wrote about the possibility of two undefeated teams meeting in the Super Bowl with perfection on the line and assured whatever the result.

Alas, those sports writers will have to find weightier matters to write about (perhaps Tiger Woods's latest travails) as both teams lost a game.  In fact New Orleans has lost two.  As both teams get ready for the playoffs and focus on their real goal of winning a Super Bowl (nothing historic there it happens every year) they may in fact suffer more losses.

I recall that after Mickey Mantle had a liver transplant, the hospital held a press conference attended by many sports journalists.  After a question inquiring about the health status of the liver donor, a doctor replied "you're a sports journalist aren't you?"

CNN sent me a "Breaking News Alert" after each of these teams lost their first game.  Perspective has truly been lost in a historic way.

Friday, December 25, 2009

Happy Holidays to the Goldman Family of Tinton, NJ

This holiday season will be especially sweet for Sean Goldman and his father David Goldman.

In 2004, four year old Sean Goldman was taken to Rio by his Brazilian born mother and kept there against the wishes of his father David Goldman.  She informed him that she wanted a divorce and would be remaining in Brazil.

Thus began a 5 year ordeal for the Goldmans which only ended when the Brazilian Supreme Court ordered Sean returned to his father.  Sadly Sean's mother died during childbirth in 2008 but his stepfather and his Brazilian family insisted on fighting to keep him there.

This case shows a shocking lack of respect for the rule of law and international treaties.  Let's be clear about what happened here.  This was a case of parental abduction full stop.  His mother should have been charged with a felony.  Brazil, as a signatory to the Hague convention, should have immediately had the police at her door to have Sean sent back to the United States until his custody was resolved.,

The fact that it took so long (even after the death of his mother) is something that i find absolutely chilling.  What is the point of the Hague convention when it is so blatantly ignored for 5 years?  The fact that the Brazilian Supreme Court ruled correctly does not mitigate the outrage, it aggravates it because it confirms what was known in 2004.....Sean Goldman should not have been removed from his father in this manner.

There will undoubtedly be trauma yet to come for young Sean as he gets to know the father that he has not grown up with for most of his young life.  He will have to adjust to a new language, culture, school system and make new friends.

It is shocking that the Brazilian court system would allow this to happen in such a clear cut case.  It is also shocking that his family in Brazil insisted that the handover not happen in private and insisted on doing it before a media circus.  One can't help but wonder if the system would be even slower to act if his mother hadn't died so tragically.

Putting a child through this absurd process is abuse.  I'm sorry but i can't come up with a kinder word to describe what has happened here.  His family in Brazil, along with the cooperation of several levels of the Brazilian judiciary committed abuse.  They may not be guilty of a crime in a strict legal sense, however there is no question that they are guilty of a moral crime.

A final chilling thought:  how many other cases like this are out there without the sunlight of publicity moving things in the right direction??

Wednesday, December 23, 2009

Obama's Copenhagen and Health Care legacies

The Obama administration was widely creditted with saving the Copenhagen talks with a last minute pledge to raise USD 100 billion in funds for climate change aid for developing countries.

If indeed this action "saved" the accord, it is worth asking what exactly it was that got saved.  The accord is not legally binding.  This accord sets no targets and will be reviewed in 6 years.  In short, it was an agreement to agree at some future point in time.  The more alarmist views (which is also increasingly the consensus view) is that the world will have already reached the tipping point in 6 years if it has not done so already.

Perhaps it is most telling that in describing this agreement to agree, President Obama hailed the agreement as being "meaningful."  Truly meaningful agreements do not need to be described as such.

A similar story is being played out in the Health care debate now progressing through Congress.  In an effort to placate Conservative Democrats and ram a bill through by Christmas, the Democrats have allowed two Senators (Lieberman and Nelson) to impose their own terms and conditions on the bill. It is truly stunning to note that during the Democratic primaries of 2008, there was much discussion about a Canadian style single payer system.  The single payer system died early and in its place was a milder "public option."  The public option was jettisoned later on.  The dems have made it clear that only option that would not be considered is not passing a bill.  This of course strengthened the hands of Senators Lieberman and Nelson.

This kind of "agree at any cost" approach is unworthy of a great nation and will prove harmful in the long run.

One wonders where this approach might lead if applied to other areas of policy disagreements.  When will President Obama stand up and say "no deal."???

Thursday, December 17, 2009

Tragedy

The front page of the New York Times is reporting on the death of Chris Henry.

Chris Henry is a wide receiver for the Cincinnatti Bengals of the National Football League.  News reports indicate that he had jumped into the back of a pickup truck being driven by his fiance after a domestic argument.  He was trying to get into the front of the truck when he fell off and suffered his fatal injuries.

Weighty issues are being discussed on the networks such as "how will his teammates be able to carry on and prepare for this weekend's match with the San Diego Chargers."

So one might ask why exactly his death is being described as tragic by so many people and merits space on the front page of the New York Times?  Well he is famous of course.   Actually i'd never heard of him and i actually follow the NFL.

Apparently he had a troubled life including several brushes with the law.  Maybe he was a good person who had a troubled history.  Maybe not....who knows?

The only thing i know for sure is that his death is not rendered more tragic because of his fame.......despite the news coverage indicating otherwise.

Monday, December 14, 2009

Legal Mumbo Jumbo

In a recent case in england, a man was jailed for 30 months after he and his brother chased down some knife wielding criminals who had invaded their home and assaulted his family members.  One of his sons escaped to sound the alarm and an uncle arrived to help chase down the thugs.  One of the home invaders was beaten with a cricket bat and left brain damaged. 

This case (and the case of Toronto grocer David Chen) raise the issue of how far one can go in protecting one's private property and family.

In both cases, legal scholars make arguments as the Judge in the england case made in his ruling:

"“It may be that some members of the public, or media commentators, will assert that the man Salem deserved what happened to him at the hands of you and the two others involved, and that you should not have been prosecuted and need not be punished," said the judge.


“However, if persons were permitted to take the law into their own hands and inflict their own instant and violent punishment on an apprehended offender rather than letting justice take its course, then the rule of law and our system of criminal justice, which are the hallmarks of a civilised society, would collapse.”

http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/news/uk/crime/article6956044.ece

Indeed this judge would have us believe that the actions of this man would cause anarchy if left unpunished.  Why innocent people might resort to assaulting home invading criminals with shocking regularity.

This type of reasoning shows that too many legal scholars live in ivory towers separated from the real world.  In the real world, the police are far too slow in their reactions to do anything but collect evidence after the fact.  In the real world, there are significant deterrents to an outbreak of vigilantism.....such as fear and the fact that it is usually the criminals who are armed.

This is the kind of paper based reasoning that sees the wolves and the deer as equal under the law and subject to the same rights and limitations.  If a mother deer were to trample a wolf to defend her offspring, these judges would be calling for the shooting of that deer lest it lead to an outbreak of wolficide at the hands of these awful deer who did not know where "reasonable force" ends and "assault" begins.

If you know anyone who has walked down a street worried about being assaulted by a rogue shopkeeper or homeowner, then you should probably question the company that you keep.  If however you have ever worried about walking down a street worried about being assaulted by a criminal on the street, then you live in the real world.

One wonders where these judges live.

Tuesday, December 8, 2009

Why Politicians Lose the Respect of the People

Following is the text of comments made by Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid about Republican opposition to the Obama Health Care bill:

"Instead of joining us on the right side of history, all Republicans have come up with is this: Slow down, stop everything, let's start over. You think you've heard these same excuses before, you're right. In this country, there were those who dug in their heels and said, Slow down, it's too early. Let's wait, things aren't bad enough about slavery. When women want to vote, slow down, there will be a better day to do that. The day isn't quite right. This body was on the verge of guaranteeing civil rights to everyone, regardless of the color of their skin, some senators resorted to the same filibuster threats that we hear today. History is repeating itself before our eyes. There are now those who don't think it is the right time to reform health care. If not now, when?"


Senator Reid's outrageous comments sound like the desperate flailings of a man on the losing side of a debate.  Comparing the Health Care Reform bill to the struggles for Abolition, Women's Suffrage and Civil Rights trivializes those important historical achievements and diminishes the credibility of his own effort.

It might be worth pointing out that the first Republican President was also known as the Great Emancipator.  It might be worth noting that the civil rights struggle saw a Democratic party that fractured with southern segregationists splitting with the party while Republicans registered African American voters.  It might be worth pointing these things out if Senator Reid's comments were worthy of rebuttal, but they are really not.

It is small wonder that he is trailing in his campaign for re-election this year.

Monday, December 7, 2009

Populist Foolishness

Companies that have received government bailouts have become the favourite whipping posts of politicians.  The auto companies and major banks have been subject to restrictions on executive compensation to widespread cheers from the proletariet masses.

These moves appeal to the common folk who are angry that taxpayer funds were needed to prevent these private companies from going under and creating havoc.  However such measures were always wrong on the merits.

In recent days it has come to light that companies such as Royal Bank of Scotland (RBS) have suffered the loss of over 1,000 top producers due to restrictions on compensation.  They have opted to leave for companies that did not take government bailouts and hence were not subject to restrictions on pay.  General Motors fired Rick Wagoner and now have fired Fritz Henderson.  What quality CEO will they find when they are subject to pay restrictions?  Lee Iacocca was headhunted into Chrysler in the late 70's and turned that company around (also with government loan guarantees which were repaid early and in full).  Would such a top executive take the helm of GM or Citibank when he knows that his pay could be multiples higher if he/she chose to work at another company? 

Citibank is in negotiations to pay back TARP money so that they will not be subject to restrictions on compensation. Citibank has been the subject of poaching raids by other financial institutions who target their top talent with bonuses that a TARP restricted firm cannot pay.

Lost in all of the class warfare inspired outrage is an important point:  the individuals that lost so much money and endangered their firms were all fired.  The comp restrictions are targetting people who made money without taking such silly risks. 

Lost also is the fact that the government bailouts were largely in the form of a purchase of a part of the company by the government.  RBS is 80% owned by the British government and Citi is 30% owned by the US Treasury.  They will recoup their taxpayer funded investments most effectively by keeping top producers on the payroll...not by driving them away!

Perhaps the most singularly stupid move comes from Chancellor of the Exchequer Alistair Darling who is preparing to introduce a bonus tax on bankers.  Perhaps Mr Darling is not aware but Britain is not a particularly big place.  The money that is earned by British banks and used to pay bonuses aren't necessarily British sourced money.  The introduction of such a tax will prompt banks to flee Canary Wharf and set up shop in other countries where they can do the same business.  In short, it will result in less money for British coffers and fewer jobs in Britain.

Some have even raised the possibility of a human rights complaint to the ECHR as it is unprecedented for a tax to be levied on a particular profession only.  However there is an election coming up in Britain so i don't expect such stupidity to fall by the wayside.  British citizens will comfort themselves in the knowledge that a banker earning 2 million pounds a year will pay more taxes than a soccer player earning 10 million pounds.

Apologies for the rambling nature of this post but I feel that i am still more coherent than the poorly thought out policies being made by elected officials.

President Nero has Stopped Fiddling.....or has he?

President Obama finally announced his decision on Afghanistan after 3 months (1 year?) of dithering.

His plan calls for an Iraq style surge of 30,000 troops who will begin withdrawing in July of 2011.  This apparent setting of a deadline drew a furious response from people like John McCain that announcing a disengagement in advance would embolden the Taliban and give them a tactical advantage.  Of course it should be noted that John McCain is an acknowledged and widely respected expert on military matters.....quite unlike President Obama.

Chastened aides have gone out to the airwaves to say that July of 2011 is only a target and a withdrawal would depend upon "progress" and "stability" in Afghanistan.  Still missing from their vocabulary are words like "victory" and "win."  No doubt a decision on a withdrawal would be drawn out anyways.

The Taliban (and the world) should be told that the surge will last until the Taliban are defeated.  This is the quickest route to an early withdrawal and anyone who has learned the lessons of history would know that.

Wednesday, December 2, 2009

Ivan the Terrible Redux

John Demjanjuk's legal saga has been in the news for nearly 30 years.

It was in 1981 that Israel first sought extradition of the man who was later accused of being "Ivan the Terrible."

US authorities stripped him of his citizenship on the basis that he had lied on his citizenship application in the 50's and deported him to Israel.  He was found guilty and sentenced to death in 1988.

In 1993, the Israeli Supreme Court overturned his conviction based upon evidence in the form of written statements of former camp guards who identified another man as being Ivan the terrible.  The authors of these written statements were executed by the Soviets in a post war purge.  The Israeli Supreme Court decision drew a clear line of distinction for Israel as the sole multi party democracy in the Middle East that also has the maturity as a nation to acquit an accused Holocaust participant.

It would not have been an easy day for the Simon Weisenthal Center and Holocaust survivors but it was the right decision.  The conviction of Nazi War criminals is too important a matter to be supported by flimsy evidence.

So what has happened to Demjanjuk since?

He was returned to the United States where his citizenship was restored but then extradited to Germany where is now being tried for being a guard at the Sobibor concentration camp.

The evidence that is available would seem to indicate that he was indeed, at least, a junior member of the SS. (He was only 20 years old when his native Ukraine was invaded by Germany and 24 by the end of the war and so a junior role is plausible.)   That being said the trial should not be continued.

There is no Statute of Limitations for a number of crimes and crimes against humanity are certainly amongst them.  That being said it is worth remembering why such statutes exist in the first place.  Memories fade, witnesses die and physical evidence degrades.  This applies to both incriminating and exculpatory evidence.

The Nazis reign of terror ended 64 years ago.  Even a new conscript at the end of the war would be in his 80's.  Trials of Nazi War criminals were important, and cathartic, events for a world reeling from the horrors of the Holocaust.  They have now outlived their usefulness in that regard.  War Crimes trials are trivialized once they move on from prosecuting the brain trust to the pawns.

The Simon Weisenthals of the world should know that they did important and valuable work.  However they should now realize that a combination of their success and the passing of time has completed their work.

To continue on at this point risks undoing some of the good work that has been done by recording some unjust convictions and that should not part of their legacy.

Friday, November 27, 2009

Cash for Good Spending Ideas

The "Cash for Clunkers" program gave Americans generous rebates for trading in their old cars for newer and more efficient cars.  Hot on its heels is a new program that will give rebate incentives for Americans to replace their old appliances.

The idea behind these programs is to bring forward major household purchases from some future point in time (presumably when the car/applicance needs replacing) to the present (when the car/appliance is working fine.)  The goal is to stimulate the economy by incentivizing consumers to replace the car/dishwasher when they would not do so otherwise....hence creating jobs in building those appliances/cars. 

These programs are wrapped in a veneer of environmentalism by replacing an older (presumably less energy efficient model) with a shiny new model that is more energy efficient.  However I haven't seen any studies being quoted to suggest that replacing large vehicles/appliances before their time has any useful net environmental benefit.  (It may well be that the carbon emissions during the production phase of the newer appliances will outstrip the benefits of lower future energy use.)

It makes sense that no environmental studies are being quoted because the point of these programs isn't the environment.  The point is to stimulate demand and jobs.  There is no question that increased demand will create jobs in the short term.  The dearth of future demand as the market gets sated early might well cost more jobs....but hey maybe then the recession will be over anyways.

It is truly bizarre that the federal government is now subsidizing the purchase of cars, dishwashers, refrigerators and dryers.  So widespread is this stimulus spending that one wonders if anyone is spending any of their own money to buy things?  So what will happen when the trillion dollar deficits being used to fund these programs create a national debt that future generations have to pay for??

Would you be happy knowing that you bought a new dryer that your grandchildren will still be paying for into their middle age?  If not then i suppose you could comfort yourself by knowing that buying a new energy efficient dryer that will save energy for the next 20 years will help to ensure that the planet is saved for future generations.

Of course that only holds true if you don't replace that 5 year old dryer and 5 yr old car when the next recession (and stimulus package) hits in 5 years.....or less!

Wednesday, November 25, 2009

Is President Nero Done Fiddling?

Indications in the news media are that President Obama will soon announce a surge of some 30,000 troops to "finish the job" in Afghanistan.  This falls short of the 40,000 troops that his General McChrystal has asked for.

Anonymous aides are saying that President Nero will be stressing a hawkish commitment to finish the job as well as communicating the message that the commitment is not open ended.

President Obama is the Commander in Chief and the US Military answers to the civilian authority.  However he has no experience in military matters.  His military experience falls short of the widely ridiculed service records of Dan Quayle and George W Bush.  By failing to heed the advice of his commander on the ground, he risks providing insufficient resources to "get the job done."

More concerning is the fact that words like "victory" and "win" seem to be lacking in their dictionary.

A commitment to train up the local forces to take over from American troops as they make their exit is a formula that was tried in a prior conflict.  That conflict was Vietnam.  An open ended commitment to victory has also been tried in both World Wars.

He who forgets the lessons of history is doomed to repeat its mistakes.  It is good that President Obama has put his fiddle away.  It would have been better if he could have come to a sounder decision and done so sooner.

Monday, November 23, 2009

History Devalued

Two years after the New England Patriots made "history" by going 16-0 in the regular season (before losing in the Super Bowl), the media hordes are beginning to note that "history" may be made again this season.

Currently the Indianapolis Colts and New Orleans Saints are both 10-0. 

You may recall that Tom Brady led the Patriots to the first ever 16-0 season and that this was "historic" because the only other team to have a perfect season did so in a shorter 14 game season in 1972.  It was also "historic" because the 16th game was of such interest that it was triple cast on three different networks.  Indeed a wall certainly fell on that day.

So the next 6 weeks promises to be a momentous time in the "history" of mankind as one or both of Peyton Manning or Drew Brees leads their respective teams to a perfect 16-0 season.    The Indianapolis Colts have actually won 19 straight regular season games but that is not as relevant to "history" as having a perfect season.

As the media publicity machine cranks up and we begin to lead the nightly news with biographical profiles of Peyton Manning (hey did you know that his brother Eli won a Super Bowl with the Giants as well and his dad Archie used to be a quarterback in the NFL too?????) and the less well known Drew Brees, ask yourself if anyone of this nonsense qualifies as anything more than mildly interesting to even sports fans.

There is a beauty to sport and many lessons on life.  The lesson here is that media hyperbole will often distort a simple game into something that sounds far more important.  Don't buy in.  There is no David vs Goliath struggle here and no magical insights into mankind. 

This is just a rush for ratings and sponsor dollars.  I will read about it and maybe watch a game or two....but i certainly won't remember this any more than Tom Brady's "historic" season two years ago.....except with irritation.

Thursday, November 19, 2009

The Ugly Game

A few days ago i wrote about an inspiring moment that showed the best of sport.  Today I must express my disappointment at what has happened to the most universal of sports....soccer.  It is known as the beautiful game yet it is anything but.

Yesterday evening Ireland played France in the Stade de France with qualification for the World Cup on the line.  It was the second leg of a two game aggregate score match.  A tied aggregate score (after overtime) is decided on the basis of who scored the most goals as a visitor.  If it is still tied, then it goes to penalty kicks.

There is no question that Ireland was a heavy underdog.  France was a finalist in the last World Cup and had won the 'away' leg 1-0.  Ireland is a nation of 3 million without the history of success on the world stage.

Yet the scrappy Irish team got the away goal and finished regulation up 1-0 levelling the score in aggregate at 1-1 and even on away goals.  A tremendous upset was in the cards as they went to overtime.

In overtime, Thierry Henry used a handball manouevre worthy of a basketball player to set up the winning goal.  The referee did not see what 80,000 spectators saw.  After the game Henry admitted to the handball and the French press are besides themselves with embarrassment.

Any soccer match i have watched is marred by the spectacle of grown men who are supposed to be world class athletes falling over like they've been shot at the slightest brush.  The swan dives and histrionics are embarrassing to watch.  This pathetic lack of sportsmanship teaches all the wrong lessons to the children watching.

Irish eyes should still be smiling today.  They have nothing to be ashamed of.  The French.....if there is any justice, they will be eliminated early on the World Cup where they don't belong anyways.

Tuesday, November 17, 2009

European Union

European integration has been moving along since the Treaty of Maastrict of 1993.  There have been grandiose predictions of political integration into what would become a "United States of Europe."

Much like in the times of Jefferson and Washington, there is much debate about how much sovereignty will be retained by member states.   Some member states such as Britain have opted to be part of the common market while retaining their own currency and monetary policy.

With the ratification of the Treaty of Lisbon, the EU Presidency will no longer be held on a rotating basis by one of the member nations.  Instead it will become a permanent office with fixed terms.  There is talk of a European army that could function as a rapid deployment force with the EU President serving as the Commander in Chief.

Despite the self professed sophistication of European nations, they have gone about this in a most unsophisticated way.  Tony Blair was considered a front runner to be the first EU President.  Yet despite his interest and profile, it appears that Tony Blair will not be successful.  He has failed to successfully lobby the member nations in the back rooms where the deal is done.  Some small nations are said to insist that the President come from a smaller nation.  Some of the larger nations simply do not want a Brit to lead the EU.

Hey I have an idea:  maybe the Executive leader of 500 million people ought to be elected rather than selected through backroom deals??

While this may be a revolutionary idea on a continent where several 'sophisticated' countries continue to have hereditary monarchs as heads of state, it would seem to be an obvious choice.

The European Union is a dynamic economic entity where goods and labour move freely.  It has helped to create prosperity throughout its member nations.  However the record on non-commercial matters is shameful.

When the former Yugoslavia descended into chaos and genocide, the powerful nations of Europe did not act. Sadly this is a continuation of patterns established during the rise of the Third Reich.  The great powers let tragedy unfold in their very own backyard (some would say that it is more apt to say that it happened in their living room.)  As in the Great War and the Second World War, the killing did not stop until a duly elected President of the United States of America ordered his nation's military into action.

Europeans bemoan the fact that America often acts as the world's policeman yet the EU is richer and more populous than America.  The United States of Europe could act as a democratic counterweight and/or partner to the United States of America and this would be good for the world.

But first they need to figure out how to create a strong and duly elected office of the President.  They need not reinvent the wheel.  They can just look across the pond to find an example......unless they are too sophisticated to do so.

Miracle on Ice

While the major news networks have now marked the fall of the Berlin Wall 20 years ago, today I turn to another anniversary that is coming up.  In Feb it will be 30 years since the "Miracle on Ice" at Lake Placid.

This was another Cold War era battle with all of the additional drama and symbolism.  It was East vs West.  The Winter Olympics were being held in Lake Placid, New York while the Summer Olympics were scheduled for Moscow later that year.  (some may recall that both winter and summer versions of the Olympics were held in the same year until fairly recently).  Jimmy Carter was considering a boycott of the Moscow Summer Games as a protest against the Soviet invasion of Afghanistan.  He would later make good on his threat and the Soviet Bloc countries would dominate the medal podiums at the summer games.

Despite all of the Cold War rhetoric, the Miracle on Ice was something more important in the eyes of a child. It was the beauty of sport and a metaphor on life.  

Russian hockey players did not play in the NHL as they do now.  At the time, the best Russian players played for Central Red Army while the best North American players played in the NHL.  The Olympics were open only to "amateurs" which the Russians were technically as they were paid to be soldiers not hockey players.  The best North Americans were pros and therefore ineligible for the Olympics.

As you might expect, the Russian players were older, more talented and more experienced than the team of college players that made up the American team.  It was a battle of men against boys.   In a pre-Olympic exhibition game, the Big Red Machine demolished the American team 10-3.  The Soviet Olympic team seemed to demolish all who stood in their way and they were prohibitive favourites to win the Gold.

Yet the scrappy American team under Coach Herb Brooks shocked the world by defeating the Soviet Union in the semi finals and then Finland to win the Gold.  I still get chills when i see the replay of the moment when a bunch of hustling youngsters threw their sticks in the air as the buzzer went and the Russians went down to defeat.

The lessons learned were many:

  • Stand up to the bully in the playground.  
  • You can make up for lack of talent with hard work and a never say die spirit.  
  • Never ever listen to the naysayers and defeatists.
  • Miracles do happen.
Some of the players went on to have careers in the NHL.  Ken Morrow followed up his Gold Medal by winning 4 Stanley Cups with the New York Islanders.  However most of the roster did not go on to have hockey careers of note.  Captain Mike Eruzione didn't do much.  Goalie Jim Craig filled the stands for an Atlanta Flames home game before it became obvious he couldn't play in the NHL.

The majority of the players on that team went on to have ordinary careers and live ordinary lives.  They couldn't play in the NHL because......well because they weren't that good.  However for one shining moment in Feb of 1980, they stood as the best in the world.  They did it with teamwork and hustle and provided a shining example of what is right in the world of sports.

Monday, November 16, 2009

The Passenger Pigeon and GM

The passenger pigeon was once the most numerous bird in the world. New world settlers marvelled at the spectacle of flocks that numbered in the billions. A blast from a shotgun could bring down multiple birds, so thick was the sky. This easy hunting made them a popular source of food.
Theories on their extinction used to focus on overhunting and habitat loss. However it has never been explained why the passenger pigeon suffered extinction when other, similar birds merely declined in numbers.

Modern theories yield an interesting hypothesis. The massive flocks were an evolutionary strategy for survival. The theory goes that massive flocks that blanketted hundreds of miles were needed in order to locate the rich food sources required to feed these birds. As the flocks shrunk in size, they lost their ability to locate food and swarm effectively. In effect they survived by maintaining a critical mass that was far above that seen otherwise in the animal kingdom.

General Motors survived for many decades by using a similar strategy. At one time, they grew by building the best cars for the money. In recent times, they sold cars by blanketting markets with dealerships. They even created different brands which required different dealers in the same market. By putting a Chevy dealership next to a Pontiac dealership next to an Oldsmobile dealership, they gave consumers the appearance of choice but were really just crowding the market.

Now that GM has decided to massively cut their dealer networks, the passenger pigeon analogy applies. It is a move designed to cut costs. It may well do that but the revenue side of the ledger will suffer more.

Without the massive flocks of dealers, one wonders how many consumers will now find it easier to choose a Honda, Toyota or VW.

This move does not solve GM's fundamental problem. They are a car maker that makes poor cars. GM is still fighting the last war. The countdown to their next Chapter 11 filing has begun.

Saturday, November 14, 2009

Tax Follies

Death and taxes are said to be the only sure things in life.

We do our best to avoid both unpleasant realities.  However it is a sad fact that taxes are a necessary evil.  Without taxes there would be no border security, no social services and public schools would be non-existent.  In short, government would cease to function.

It is the visceral reaction to taxes (and my conservative brethren are often guilty of fanning these flames) that holds tax policy hostage to emotion and leads to bad policy decisions.

The Ontario government is the latest political body to venture down a misguided path driven by political considerations rather than on substantive reasons.

As everyone knows, Ontario will be harmonizing the Provincial Sales tax with the Federal GST.  This is a long overdue measure that will increase the efficiency of collection and administration. 

The Holy Grail for economists is efficiency and in simple terms we can look at this as the percentage of taxes paid that actually reach government coffers net of collection costs.  There are additional measures of efficiency that deal with the effects of the incentive/disincentive aspect of differences in application of the tax.

The HST will  exempt fast food that costs less than $4, newspapers, books, children's clothing, diapers, car seats and feminine hygiene products.

While it is politically appealing to exempt such purchases, it increases the costs of collection and distorts consumer choices as well as increasing the cost of doing business. 

A business like Wendys will faces the difficulty of keeping prices below $4 in order to avoid triggering the HST.  Raising the cost of a 3.99 meal by one penny increases the cost to the consumer by significantly more.  A level like this is not indexed for inflation and as such the business will suffer compressed margins and consumers will face a gap move in costs at 4.00.   I might ask exactly what is so magical about a 4 dollar figure anyway? Also why would we specifically exempt fast food (hence encouraging its consumption)???  As smoking rates decline and obesity rates rise, fast food may become more deadly across society than the effects of smoking.

Why are books exempt?  Books are not inherently good....only good books are.  Books are a consumer good and should be taxed like any other.

Newspapers are not taxed but magazines are.  Why does this distinction exist?

Feminine hygiene products?  Yes I'm aware that only women need these and hence it is inherently unfair that only women have to pay this cost.  It is also true that men and women exhibit very different buying patterns across many consumer goods.  Men generally consume more calories......very unfair I'd say.

The purpose of taxes is to raise funds for important spending priorities.  People should remember that and politicians should shepard these resources very respectfully.

All goods for purchase at your supermarket should be taxed at one uniform rate.  With the exception of specifically targetted products like tobacco and gasoline which have a separate delivery system, there should be no exemptions.  Greater exemptions mean higher rates of taxes on non-exempt items and greater administrative costs.

This is not an ideological argument.  Where taxes get spent can be an ideological battle.  Increasing the cost of collection and creating bad consumer choices (ie in favour of fast food) is just plain dumb.

Premier McGuinty....shame!

President Nero

President Obama has marked one year since his election.  He now suffers from approval ratings that fluctuate with economic releases and other events.  This is both right and proper.  While the economy tanked before he assumed office and he was not the one to order the invasions of Iraq and Afghanistan, everything that happens now is on "his watch."

One year since he received his mandate from the American people, President Obama is still fiddling while Kabul and Kandahar burn.  His military commander in Afghanistan has recommended an Iraq style "surge" of 40,000 troops to manage the Taliban insurgency.  Obama advisors are split and there are conflicting reports about which way President Nero is leaning.

During Officer training, we were taught to be decisive.  We were taught that not making a decision was a decision in itself but it is rarely the right decision.  The reason for this is very simple:  not making a decision against an enemy that is making decisions shows weakness and you allow the enemy to set the pace.

While he dithers the Taliban continue to bleed the undermanned allied forces.

The surge was succesful in Iraq, even the most vocal critics of the Iraq war admit this.  President Obama should stop dithering and make a decision.  He risks becoming another Jimmy Carter if he does not.