"Conservatives"???

I am a Conservative minded voter and as such I was happy to see the endless minority Parliament come to an end with a Tory majority.

It is now time for the Right Honourable Stephen Harper to produce a Conservative budget.  During the minority years, I suppose it was understandable that the Conservatives produced budgets that were not dissimilar to what a Liberal or NDP administration would have produced....after all, they didn't have a majority and couldn't really govern like they did.

The Harper Conservatives strayed from Conservative principles with boneheaded moves like cutting the GST.  People may not remember but the GST was originally supposed to be 9% (replacing the 13.5% Manufacturers Sales Tax).  It was a sound policy to bring in the GST as the MST served as a tariff on our own exports.  It was cut to 7% to make it more politically palatable despite the lack of merit behind such a move.

The Harper team cut the rate to 5%.  This was unnecessary and harmful to Canada's fiscal position.   It should go back to 7%...at least!  Further cuts in income taxes should wait as well.  Canada is in very good fiscal position only when compared with other G8 nations who are all basket cases.  Canada should lead the way in eliminating the deficit and aggressively paying down the debt...which is an immoral tax upon future generations.

The Hudak team provokes similar concerns.  Income tax cuts are a great idea......if we weren't running a 15 billion dollar deficit.  Tax cuts should wait, spending cuts should not.

Hudak is playing politics with energy prices and I don't like it at all.  Utility bills are going up because the cost of energy is going up around the world.  The Green Energy Act may have its flaws but it should not be scrapped entirely.  In fact, Ontario (and Canada) will become much more energy efficient if prices stay high.

Harper and Hudak talk a good game about fiscal responsibility.  As Conservatives they know exactly what the right things to say are.  One hopes that they actually put some of that fiscal responsibility into action.

If they do not, then they risk being labelled Tax and Spend Conservatives....and they will lose the votes of conservatives across the country.  Look south for an example.  This is what happened to George W Bush conservatives as they looked at the fiscal wreckage he had left.

Canada's Team - the Canucks

I haven't blogged about hockey in a while, strange considering it is my favourite sport.

I've never really been into cheering for the last Canadian team left in the playoffs.  For one thing, the Islanders were always my team.  For another, practically every team in the NHL has a roster that is filled with Canadians.  In fact, it's probable that some American based teams have more Canadians on the roster than some Canadian based teams.

That being said, I am changing pace this year.  I will be cheering for the Vancouver Canucks as Canada's sole remaining entry in the Stanley Cup Playoffs.

When one thinks of iconic Canadian teams, of course names like Les Canadiens and the Maple Leafs jump out. How can they not with names so, well so Canadian!!  The Canucks were the 3rd Canadian based NHL team (in the modern era) and they have not won a Cup in their 40 year existence.  (for the Leaf fans, that is 3 years less than Toronto's drought).  However they went to the finals twice losing to my Islanders in 82 and to the Rangers in 94.

When the Canucks entered the league in 1970, they did more than make another obviously Canadian name appear on the scene.  It was much more than that.  The Canucks hockey team arrived just before the daring "Crazy Canucks" downhill ski team arrived.   The Canucks were the first Canadian NHL team to exist west of Yonge Street, Toronto in the modern era.  The Leafs had always been the team of English Canada while the Habs were the team of French Canada.  Upper and Lower Canada now had to share the stage with a Western team.

Other teams have come and gone but none were so ostensibly Canadian as the Leafs, Canadiens and the Canucks.  Names matter:

Edmonton Oilers - so named cuz Alberta has a lot of oil.  A rather sad name.

Winnipeg Jets - the former WHA team actually became famous for the Europeans they had on the roster.

Quebec Nordiques - really?  Quebec City is populated by people of Nordic heritage?  Came as a surprise to me!

Ottawa Senators - the team named after our unelected Senators actually sport a picture of a Roman Centurion on their jerseys.  D'oh!!

Calgary Flames - this one annoys me the most.  The Atlanta Flames were so named because General Sherman burned down Atlanta at the end of the American Civil War.  So when the team moved to Calgary, they became the Calgary Flames???

The Canucks are led by the Sedin twins who are Swedish.  They were drafted by their then General Manager who was an American named Brian Burke.  Brian Burke now runs the Toronto Maple Leafs.

Still it has been 17 years since a Canadian team held a Stanley Cup victory parade.  That is too long.

Go Canucks!!!

Wither Journalism Again!!!

As most people who read/watch/listen to any news would know, last Saturday May 21st, 2011 was Judgment Day.  This was the day of rapture and the world would be coming to an end.   Apparently some nutjob of a preacher in Alameda, California said so and "journalists" the world over rushed to interview him and put him on the news.

Well as it turned out, the world did not end.  He now claims to have miscalculated.  Thus more ink (if ink is still used) was spilt on further reporting of Preacher Nut Job.

http://www.thestar.com/news/world/article/995652--preacher-says-he-was-5-months-off-judgment-day-will-occur-in-october?bn=1

Much has been written about the growing irrelevance of traditional media in the internet age.  Why watch CNN when you can follow the trending topics on Twitter?  Amidst the hand wringing about the death spiral of journalism, we find 'journalists' publishing stories about the end of the world as predicted by Preacher Nut Job.

I'd like to ask the major newspapers who reported on this story what their standards for reporting are?  Does any mentally ill person with a following deserve prime time interviews?  Perhaps the newspaper barons (if they still exist) feel they missed the boat on David Koresh and don't want to let the next one get away.

I am not merely expressing irritation through sarcasm.  There is a story about a man in New York who spent his life savings buying ads to let everyone know that the world was ending.  By giving a mainstream platform to people like this, there is a real risk of real harm being done to gullible people.  "Hey it must be true, the New York Times printed it!"

There are enough gullible people in this world (many of them working as journalists) that the media should have some standards for what they report.....or just get bought out by the National Enquirer.

Inspiration

I was considering blogging about my experience of running the Mississauga Marathon today.  About two kilometers into the race my perspective changed.

Amidst the sound of footsteps, I heard a most unusual sound of something else hitting the pavement.  I looked to my left and saw a young man with a brush cut not unlike one I wore in past life.  This young man was missing his left leg and the unusual sound I heard was the sound of his prosthetic limb hitting the ground.

I chatted with him briefly.  He is a member of the Royal Canadian Regiment (my old regiment) and he lost his leg just west of Kandahar about a year ago.  I took a picture during the run.

The picture is of terrible quality however you can see that he has an artificial limb and from the angle of the photo you can guess one important point......he was ahead of me!  This young man who lost his leg serving his country was leaving me behind.  My right knee hurt....he doesn't have a left knee.

I wanted to ask to have a picture taken with him at the end and ask if I could blog about him.  However he turned off as he was doing the half marathon.  He was long gone by the time I finished.

I wanted to tell him that he cut a very inspiring figure.  I suspect that he would have answered that he was just out for a run.  He seemed that matter of fact in the few minutes I spoke to him before he left me catching his dust.

Perhaps I'll get a chance to talk to him again at the Army Run weekend in Ottawa.  I had best get training if I want to keep up with him.

Armageddon!!!!

After all of my election rants, I was going to write something more upbeat as a change of pace for my next blog post.  However I have been distracted by the big news that is, apparently, front page worthy on many of the local news websites.

So what is this big news?  Did Osama get killed again? Did Jerusalem fall to the Romans?  No!!!  The big news is that the price of gas will go up overnight by 6.5 cents a litre.  How could this happen?   I've watched as a reporter on the street interview angry motorists filling up.  Those dastardly bankers with their "derivatives" were identified as possible culprits.  Hedge funds and other speculators could be in on it as well.  Then again maybe it's just the big oil companies conspiring to drive the economy into a recession such that they sell less of their product?  

Some perspective is always good.  When I lived in the UK, gasoline cost roughly three times as much in Ol blighty as in the Great White North.   With the change in exchange rates, the cost in the UK is now roughly double that which we pay in Canada.

Despite this enormous inequity in gas prices, Brits have not been reduced to donkey pulled wagons as their primary form of transportation.  Civilization has not crumbled and if you see people selling apples on the street, then you are probably in one of their somewhat charming street markets.

Brits (as well as other Europeans) have adjusted to these higher fuel prices by utilizing a very clever technology that few North Americans are aware of.  It is called the smaller car.   I saw many small model cars in Britain that aren't even available over here because the car companies know that they wouldn't sell.   General Motors actually makes some very high quality small cars (for Europe).  The Vauxhall Corsa is a very nice little car with good mileage.  However it is not practical to sell in North America as you cannot fit more than 8 cases of beer inside it.

I will not endear myself to my Conservative brethren he by saying this, but the truth of the matter is that our fuel prices should be much much higher.  If we ever want to break North America's addiction to tar sands and oil imported from countries ruled by dictators, then we simply have to consume less oil.  Hybrids are nice but they simply won't replace regular cars fast enough to make a big difference.  The only way to dramatically reduce oil consumption is by increasing its price.  Gas taxes should gradually go up to be on a par with European pump prices.

People will adjust.  They will drive smaller cars, take public transit, walk more and cycle more.  Necessity is the mother of invention and so I would expect that fuel efficiency will increase even on large SUV's.  

People will adjust, though they will probably still complain about gas prices as they walk along drinking a bottle of water that costs more per fluid ounce than the gas they just used to fill their car.

By the way, this massive 6.5 cent increase overnight that is so scandalous.....well I have a 50 litre tank.  So it will cost me a whopping $3.25 extra to fill up!!!

Looking Forward - Post Election

Canadians are now adjusting to a new political world where the Tories will govern with a majority for the first time since 1993.  The New Democratic Party will serve as the Opposition while the Liberals lick their wounds and the Bloc determines whether their existence is of any relevance anymore.

Canada has a fixed election law now so the Tories will govern for the next 4 years.  At that time, they will face the voters again.  I think that election will be a fait accompli.

The Federal scene is once again a three party system.  The new Parliament includes just 5 MP's in total who are not part of one of the three main parties.  This compares with around 50 in every Parliament since 93.

The prospects for the Liberals are not good.  They were decimated and landed in third place for the first time in their history.  Many of their potential new leaders lost last Monday.  Almost half of their suppporters from the Chretien years desserted them.  Even most Liberals are saying that it will take at least two elections to rebuild their party and brand.  It took over a decade for the right to unite and become a force again.  It will take the Liberals a similar amount of time.

The NDP rode a wave of enthusiasm in Quebec into their status as the Official Opposition.  However Quebecers are notoriously unstable with their massive mood swings. 

 In 2007 Quebecers made Mario Dumont's Action Democratique du Quebec the official opposition in the legislature.  The ADQ was criticized for being a one man show and for having too many candidates with little or no experience.....sound familiar?  In 2008, the ADQ was reduced back to a rump of 5 seats.  

This election will be a high water mark for Jack Layton and the NDP.  Already cracks are showing in their armour.  All major newspapers have run stories ridiculing the fact that several new NDP caucus members are not yet done with their undergraduate studies.  Their youngest member is also the youngest parliamentarian in Canadian history.  He is 19 and plans to quit his part time job at a golf course now that he is a Member of Parliament.  Ruth Ellen Brossad represents a 99% francophone riding but, apparently, she doesn't speak French.

Jack Layton will spend  a lot of time over the next four years managing his caucus.  However, even if he didn't have to waste time herding some unruly cats, he is very unlikely to increase his votes beyond the 30% that he got on election night.  Most Canadians know enough about the NDP to know that they are not a party that has a lot of strength on fiscal matters.  Canada may not be a Conservative country like America, however we are also not as left as much of Europe.  The Green Party won their first seat as well.  They will further split the vote on the left.  The NDP simply won't get enough traction to get to a government with all of these factors at play.

So by process of elimination, I come to the conclusion that Stephen Harper will win the 2015 election by default....pretty much what happened this time as well.  His opposition is weaker and it would take a miracle for some other party to form a government.  

I was telling people at work that I consider this to be in the range of 80% probability.   I'm thinking that might even be a bit on the low side.

Election Reflections

So the election campaign is now over except for the voting.

There has been much heated rhetoric and harsh things said.  (I am not innocent)

However as the campaign is now over, I'd like to offer some sober reflections and perspective.

First Canadians are very lucky to be living in a country with a well functioning democracy.  No it's not perfect and I'm not saying it is.  Perhaps proportional representation would be better?  Perhaps an American style system of checks and balances would be better?  Perhaps an elected Senate would improve things?

All in all, Canadians have a system that is vastly superior to the system of government under which the vast majority of the human race live under.  No country in Africa has a healthier democracy.  India and China together account for 40% of humanity.  The Islamic world is another fifth of the total.  There is some overlap but easily 60% of the human race is covered right there.  I haven't even mentioned Latin America and the rest of Asia.  Canada's system compares pretty well.

This is not to say that we should not seek to improve things.  Of course we should.  However, Stephen Harper is not Saddam Hussein.  Jack Layton is not Stalin and Duceppe is not Hitler.  Each of them came from modest roots and have made their mommas proud.

The country of my birth only achieved real democracy decades after a coalition of troops repelled a Communist invasion.  My long lost cousins in North Korea (if they exist) have never known a basic level of democracy.  In recent years we saw brave Iraqi and Afghan citizens brave bullets and bombs to vote.  In our parents' lifetimes Americans with darker skin braved beatings and intimidation to vote.

I saw an article in a Canadian newspaper that speculated on the effect upon voter turnout if rain is forecast for this election day.  In some ways it is sad that some will not brave raindrops when there are other people who will brace bullets to vote.  Though I suppose a healthy democracy might also be one where people feel safe in knowing that their fellow Canadians will make the right choice anyway.  I know I am stretching here but while I cannot respect not voting as a choice, I still feel very strongly that it is each individual's choice to make.



I hope that the Conservatives win a majority but I know well that it won't be armageddon if they don't.  I am proud to be Canadian and will be voting.  I hope others do as well, regardless of which party they support.