Canada has a fixed election law now so the Tories will govern for the next 4 years. At that time, they will face the voters again. I think that election will be a fait accompli.
The Federal scene is once again a three party system. The new Parliament includes just 5 MP's in total who are not part of one of the three main parties. This compares with around 50 in every Parliament since 93.
The prospects for the Liberals are not good. They were decimated and landed in third place for the first time in their history. Many of their potential new leaders lost last Monday. Almost half of their suppporters from the Chretien years desserted them. Even most Liberals are saying that it will take at least two elections to rebuild their party and brand. It took over a decade for the right to unite and become a force again. It will take the Liberals a similar amount of time.
The NDP rode a wave of enthusiasm in Quebec into their status as the Official Opposition. However Quebecers are notoriously unstable with their massive mood swings.
In 2007 Quebecers made Mario Dumont's Action Democratique du Quebec the official opposition in the legislature. The ADQ was criticized for being a one man show and for having too many candidates with little or no experience.....sound familiar? In 2008, the ADQ was reduced back to a rump of 5 seats.
This election will be a high water mark for Jack Layton and the NDP. Already cracks are showing in their armour. All major newspapers have run stories ridiculing the fact that several new NDP caucus members are not yet done with their undergraduate studies. Their youngest member is also the youngest parliamentarian in Canadian history. He is 19 and plans to quit his part time job at a golf course now that he is a Member of Parliament. Ruth Ellen Brossad represents a 99% francophone riding but, apparently, she doesn't speak French.
Jack Layton will spend a lot of time over the next four years managing his caucus. However, even if he didn't have to waste time herding some unruly cats, he is very unlikely to increase his votes beyond the 30% that he got on election night. Most Canadians know enough about the NDP to know that they are not a party that has a lot of strength on fiscal matters. Canada may not be a Conservative country like America, however we are also not as left as much of Europe. The Green Party won their first seat as well. They will further split the vote on the left. The NDP simply won't get enough traction to get to a government with all of these factors at play.
So by process of elimination, I come to the conclusion that Stephen Harper will win the 2015 election by default....pretty much what happened this time as well. His opposition is weaker and it would take a miracle for some other party to form a government.
I was telling people at work that I consider this to be in the range of 80% probability. I'm thinking that might even be a bit on the low side.
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