Monday, November 16, 2009

The Passenger Pigeon and GM

The passenger pigeon was once the most numerous bird in the world. New world settlers marvelled at the spectacle of flocks that numbered in the billions. A blast from a shotgun could bring down multiple birds, so thick was the sky. This easy hunting made them a popular source of food.
Theories on their extinction used to focus on overhunting and habitat loss. However it has never been explained why the passenger pigeon suffered extinction when other, similar birds merely declined in numbers.

Modern theories yield an interesting hypothesis. The massive flocks were an evolutionary strategy for survival. The theory goes that massive flocks that blanketted hundreds of miles were needed in order to locate the rich food sources required to feed these birds. As the flocks shrunk in size, they lost their ability to locate food and swarm effectively. In effect they survived by maintaining a critical mass that was far above that seen otherwise in the animal kingdom.

General Motors survived for many decades by using a similar strategy. At one time, they grew by building the best cars for the money. In recent times, they sold cars by blanketting markets with dealerships. They even created different brands which required different dealers in the same market. By putting a Chevy dealership next to a Pontiac dealership next to an Oldsmobile dealership, they gave consumers the appearance of choice but were really just crowding the market.

Now that GM has decided to massively cut their dealer networks, the passenger pigeon analogy applies. It is a move designed to cut costs. It may well do that but the revenue side of the ledger will suffer more.

Without the massive flocks of dealers, one wonders how many consumers will now find it easier to choose a Honda, Toyota or VW.

This move does not solve GM's fundamental problem. They are a car maker that makes poor cars. GM is still fighting the last war. The countdown to their next Chapter 11 filing has begun.

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