US Mid Term Election Prediction - II

A lot has changed in the 3 weeks since i made my predictions about Tuesday's US mid term elections.

If you listen to the pundits, the Republican wave has been building.  Some (such as Dick Morris) speak of 100 Democrat congressional seats being in play.  Recent polls have shown a marginal improvement for
Democrats as some races that were toss ups have moved to leaning Democrat.

Strangely, the recent election of Rob Ford as Mayor of Toronto leads me to think that I may have been wrong to predict a narrow Republican victory.   Rob Ford's candidacy was similar to many of the so called "Tea party" candidates that have shocked the two party establishment by knocking off incumbent Republicans in primaries (such as Senator Bennett of Utah and Murkowski of Alaska.  Tea party candidates were often unconventional and politically incorrect.  They are not polished and come across as more than a little amateurish......yet they have won some races that they really shouldn't have.

The phenomenon that put Rob Ford in the Mayor's office and Scott Brown into Ted Kennedy's Senate seat is an expression of widespread voter anger.  Many of the establishment politicians seem to have been a little slow in recognizing (and harnessing) this anger.  The voters are angry and the anger will generate high turnout amongst the most aggrieved.

The people should be angry.  They have seen their tax dollars go to bailing out auto workers who earn much more than the average American or Canadian.  They have seen their taxes bailing out Wall Street bankers....nuff said on that one.

If current trends hold then the Republicans should sweep into power in the House and perhaps even the Senate.  The GOP leadership should be careful in what they wish for.  If they are thinking ahead to 2012, then it might be better for them if they don't take the Senate.  When the GOP took over both houses in 1994, the subsequent conflicts raised the standing of Bill Clinton and helped him get re-elected a short 2 years later.  

If Obama loses the ability to push his projects through Congress, then he will be left to make speeches.  Obama's is a great speaker and the more speeches he gives (combined with fewer policy initiatives, the more likely his re-election.

Obama was not particularly good at managing the public perception of his policies:  

• The right hated Health Care reform and the left was furious that he took the public option off the table so early.  
• The left doesn't like the fact that he is 'surging' another 30,000 troops into Afghanistan while the right complained that he took 8 months to make that decision.

Bill Clinton was actually liberated by the loss of Congress in 1994.  When the Liberal base was in the minority, he made deals with Gingrich and his gang to pass welfare reform and NAFTA.  These became his signature accomplishments.  

The GOP should count their blessings if they don't get the Senate and the House had best get to work on pushing substantive legislation rather than another shutdown of the Federal government.  If they are smart, they will coopt many Democratic agenda items such as Climate Change and Health Care reform. 

Conservatives don't favour pollution and they don't like the idea of people dying for lack of Health Care.  There is a lot of fertile ground for them to make real proposals.  They should do so with haste.

Final Prediction

GOP wins north of 50 seats in the House and the Senate is a 50-50 saw off.