Two years ago a surge of new voters propelled Barack Obama into the White House and his party had large majorities in both houses of Congress. The GOP's epitaph was being written and the talk was of a permanent Democratic majority. A scant 18 months later, a Republican Speaker will be third in line for the Presidency.
Much attention has been directed towards the Tea Party and some of their more dubious candidates and views. Yet for all the rallies and anger they expressed, their most effective action has been the simple democratic exercise of voting at the primary and election levels.
Their voices would have amounted to nought if the Obama surge voters of 2008 showed up at the polls in 2010. The reason why the Democrats lost by such a big margin is quite simply that their own voters either did not show up to vote or switched sides when they got to the ballot box.
The question of how the Obama administration managed to simultaneously energize the opposition and dispirit their own supporters is one that many pundits are chewing over. A recurring theme is Obama's seeming aloofness and professorial demeanor. He doesn't come across like someone rolling up his sleeves to do the work. Both Presidents Bush caught a lot of flak for fishing or golfing too much. CNN reports that Obama has golfed more in his two years in office that George W Bush did in 8 years.
http://www.cnn.com/2010/SPORT/golf/04/20/golf.obama.bush/index.html
The pundits appear unanimous in saying that this mid term election result means nothing for his re-election prospects in two years. Two years is a long time in politics and they should be careful about drawing too many comparisons to Clinton's mid term losses of 94 coupled with his re-election 2 years later.
This is a very different situation for a number of reasons:
- Speaker elect John Boehner is not Newt Gingrich. Gingrich came up as a grenade thrower with sharp rhetoric that offended many. John Boehner comes across like a grown up.
- The Republicans do not have a majority in the Senate. As a result, many of the more extreme elements of the party face some checks and balances within the Legislative branch. A government shutdown is not likely.
- This is a very different Republican party than the one that ascended in 94. Amongst their new class of Congressman are two African Americans representing majority white districts. They are the first black Republicans in Congress since JC Watts retired in 2002. Additionally two of their State Governors (Bobby Jindal of Louisiana and Nikki Haley of South Carolina) are Indian. One of their most prominent figures is Sara Palin.
- These Republicans are different in their outlook and approach as well. On election night Speaker elect Boehner stated that there would be no celebrations while so many Americans are unemployed. This was very smart politics. I also heard one Republican speaking to CNN who said that the Republicans deserved to be voted out of office before as they did not stick to their principles. He referred to this election result as a second chance. There is a far more mature outlook and a responsible attitude to the power they now wield.
President Obama does indeed need to follow Clinton's lead by working with the Republicans. He had such large majorities that he did not need to do so. The people decided that they didn't much like the results. By contrast Clinton's administration had some of their signature achievements while working with Republicans. It was Republican votes that ensured passage of Welfare Reform and NAFTA. The people liked that so much they re-elected Clinton and kept the Republicans in control in Congress.
So far, Obama has shown little evidence that he gets it. The Economist wrote an editorial in the aftermath called "Obama's Tin Ear."
His aloofness will soon start to come across as arrogance. At that point, he assures himself a legacy as a single term President.
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