Bush Redux

President Barack Obama is beginning to show a pattern of repeating the mistakes of his two least favourite Presidents of recent years.  His silence as he vacationed away after the attempted terror attack on Christmas day evoked memories of George H.W. Bush fishing at Kennebunkport as the nation prepared for war.  He has gone on to adopt George W Bush's successful surge strategy in an attempt to pacify Afghanistan.

Perhaps his biggest mistake (and also biggest copy cat move) was to declare that he had a sweeping mandate for change in the wake of an election victory.   After his 2004 reelection victory, George W Bush declared that he had "political capital" which he was going to use.  Friendly majorities in both Houses of Congress would pass Social Security reform enabling Americans to divert part of their Social Security contributions into privately managed accounts that could invest in the never ending stock market boom. (that is even funnier/sadder when you thing about it now)

After the elections of 2004, pundits talked about how Karl Rove had fashioned a "Permanent Republican Majority."  After the elections of 2008, pundits talked about the dispirited and disorganized Republican party which was a spent force and had lost its relevance.

Politics can be fickle because at its base it is all about people.   The American people had not changed all that much from 2004 to 2008.  By and large, it was the folks who put Bush into office who put Obama into office.  They hadn't changed who they were, they just changed their minds and reserved the right to change their minds again.

President Obama has now campaigned for his party's candidates in Virginia, New Jersey and Massachusetts. He is 0-3 in elections where his party had held the seat and only Virginia could be said to lean Republican.  The people are pulling him back towards the centre.

Obama and the Democrats should take heed of the message that is being sent.  At this point they insist that they will get slaughtered at the mid term elections if they do not pass health care reform in some form or other.  This might be true if Americans didn't have a health care system to begin with.  However, the idea that "anything is better than nothing", in a political sense, is just dead wrong.  The desperation with which the Dems will jettison any part of the Health Care reform package (ie.  universality, public option, abortion, etc) is really rubbing people (including Liberals) the wrong way.  It appears unprincipled and desperate.  The Democratic leadership seems to be saying that they'll win the mid term elections as long as they pass something that can be called Health Care reform.

Democrats have already started breaking ranks.  Senator Jim Webb of Virginia has already called on the Senate leadership to stop all Senate votes on Health Care until Scott Brown is seated.  As many as 11 House Democrats are said to be ready to vote against the Senate version of the bill.  That is enough to defeat the bill.

The Democrats should not wait until after November to hear the voice of the people.  If they do so, there will be fewer Democrats in Congress for whom it matters.  They should go back to the drawing board and adopt an incremental approach to health care reform.  If they can fashion a bill that increases coverage, reduces cost and red tape and improves health care overall, they will draw Republican support.

The Republicans are not allergic to Health Care reform.  During the Clinton administration's attempts to reform the system, The late Senator John Chafee sponsored a reform bill that many Liberals marvelled at for its constructive approach.  Very Liberal Senator Jay Rockefeller was especially effusive in his praise.

The people of Massachusetts have restored Checks and Balances in the short term.  This is a good thing.