Mission Accomplished Redux?

In May of 2003, George W Bush landed on the USS Abraham Lincoln in a flight suit and gave a speech to announce the end of "major combat operations" in Iraq.  Behind him hung a banner that proclaimed "Mission Accomplished."

For years Bush was ripped in the media for this stunt and it was warranted.  The mission was not close to being accomplished and major combat operations continued for years.

Today we see his successor announcing the partial withdrawal of US forces from Afghanistan because "the tide of war is receding."  If he is right that the tide of war is "receding" then he is wrong to be withdrawing troops now.

Did American troops leave Europe after the Battle of the Bulge? (the Nazis never mounted another offensive) Perhaps Truman should have withdrawn from Korea when American forces approached the Yalu river? (the North Korean army was in tatters and on the run) Maybe after Guadalcanal, the Admiral Nimitz should have directed the Pacific fleet back to port since the tide was war receding. (Japan was no threat to advance at that point)

If in fact Obama is right that the tide of war is receding (kinda sounds like "mission accomplished" cross dressing as something else) then this is the time to intensify efforts to really put the foot down on Al Quada's (and the Taliban's) throat.  If he is right then this is the time to march for victory.  However I don't think he is right.  Most experts on the region do not view Afghanistan in isolation.  They view the problem in terms of Afghanistan-Pakistan.  For years Americans have been frustrated by the safe havens the Taliban now has in Pakistan.  They complain constantly about the duplicitous actions of the Pakistani Secret Service (ISI) who have been known to inform targets before the Americans strike.  It was for this very reason that the hit on Bin Laden was kept from Pakistani officials until it was under way.

The problem has not changed materially with the death of Bin Laden.  Afghanistan is still governed by the unpredictable and unreliable Hamid Karzai.  Pakistan's ISI is still a rogue element beyond the reach of both civilian and military control.  Perhaps US troops in Kabul are no answer to the problem of Pakistan, however a weakening of the US presence will surely embolden the Taliban to reach across the border to their former safe havens.

By withdrawing troops prematurely, Obama risks turning Afghanistan into his "mission accomplished" issue.  It is probably no coincidence that the former Community Organizer Obama seems likely to make the same mistake as the veteran of the Texas Air National Guard.  Neither of them had seen war and neither of them have studied war's implications and strategies.  George H.W. Bush declared an end to combat operations after 100 hours of the ground war during the first Gulf war.  His mission was accomplished.  But then he had seen war up close.  He was a decorated veteran of WWII.  He possessed a wisdom that has been lacking in all of his successors thus far.