Mission Accomplished Redux?

In May of 2003, George W Bush landed on the USS Abraham Lincoln in a flight suit and gave a speech to announce the end of "major combat operations" in Iraq.  Behind him hung a banner that proclaimed "Mission Accomplished."

For years Bush was ripped in the media for this stunt and it was warranted.  The mission was not close to being accomplished and major combat operations continued for years.

Today we see his successor announcing the partial withdrawal of US forces from Afghanistan because "the tide of war is receding."  If he is right that the tide of war is "receding" then he is wrong to be withdrawing troops now.

Did American troops leave Europe after the Battle of the Bulge? (the Nazis never mounted another offensive) Perhaps Truman should have withdrawn from Korea when American forces approached the Yalu river? (the North Korean army was in tatters and on the run) Maybe after Guadalcanal, the Admiral Nimitz should have directed the Pacific fleet back to port since the tide was war receding. (Japan was no threat to advance at that point)

If in fact Obama is right that the tide of war is receding (kinda sounds like "mission accomplished" cross dressing as something else) then this is the time to intensify efforts to really put the foot down on Al Quada's (and the Taliban's) throat.  If he is right then this is the time to march for victory.  However I don't think he is right.  Most experts on the region do not view Afghanistan in isolation.  They view the problem in terms of Afghanistan-Pakistan.  For years Americans have been frustrated by the safe havens the Taliban now has in Pakistan.  They complain constantly about the duplicitous actions of the Pakistani Secret Service (ISI) who have been known to inform targets before the Americans strike.  It was for this very reason that the hit on Bin Laden was kept from Pakistani officials until it was under way.

The problem has not changed materially with the death of Bin Laden.  Afghanistan is still governed by the unpredictable and unreliable Hamid Karzai.  Pakistan's ISI is still a rogue element beyond the reach of both civilian and military control.  Perhaps US troops in Kabul are no answer to the problem of Pakistan, however a weakening of the US presence will surely embolden the Taliban to reach across the border to their former safe havens.

By withdrawing troops prematurely, Obama risks turning Afghanistan into his "mission accomplished" issue.  It is probably no coincidence that the former Community Organizer Obama seems likely to make the same mistake as the veteran of the Texas Air National Guard.  Neither of them had seen war and neither of them have studied war's implications and strategies.  George H.W. Bush declared an end to combat operations after 100 hours of the ground war during the first Gulf war.  His mission was accomplished.  But then he had seen war up close.  He was a decorated veteran of WWII.  He possessed a wisdom that has been lacking in all of his successors thus far.

Miami Heat

Playing sports as a kid gave me many lessons on life to remember.  Memories of joy and hurt, accomplishment and failure, friendships and rivalries......all to be cherished now.

Remember what it was like when everyone stood in a group and the two captains picked their teams one at a time until there was nobody (except you) left in the group?  I've never forgotten how it felt being the last guy picked.  The humiliation, the embarrassment of sticking out like a sore thumb.  Of course somebody HAD to be the last one picked....who cares?  I didn't like it one bit!!

Similarly remember when the two best kids wanted to play together and insisted on it?  Usually they were the two biggest kids so what could you do?  That kinda sucked too.  One team was always stacked and it usually wasn't my team.

Being the last one picked as well as being on the team getting pummelled wasn't fun.....oh wait no it was!!  I'd rather be picked last than not play the game.  I'd rather lose badly than not play the game. 

It is rare but not unheard of, for an underdog to win.  (just think of the Miracle on Ice at the Lake Placid Olympics).  Watching David struggle with Goliath was always inspiring even when Goliath slays David....cuz there is always next time.

I am not a big basketball fan.  I like to play but not so much to watch.  I prefer college over the NBA anytime.  However, even a casual fan had to take notice when Lebron James and Chris Bosh left their teams as free agents to join up with their buddy Dewayne Wade to create a stacked team in Miami.  Lebron famously declared that he is going to take his "talents to South Beach."  Multiple NBA Championships were predicted and promised.

So now the Miami Heat found themselves down 3-2 to the Dallas Mavericks in the Championship finals.  I am pulling for Dallas.  Dallas has never won the league and had a soft reputation.  This "soft" team battled back twice to defeat Miami in games 3 and 4.  Dallas has one marquee player to Miami's three.  They do not walk with a swagger.....why would they?  They haven't done anything to swagger about. 

More than anything else, I want Dallas to win to slap the stacked team in Miami.  I want Dallas to win because they don't swagger.  I want Dallas to win because nobody expected them to win.  I want Lebron to take his talent to the golf course for the summer.

That being said, if Miami does win, that's ok.  Another one of life's lessons learned through sport is that life isn't always fair.

Go Mavs!!!

"Conservatives"???

I am a Conservative minded voter and as such I was happy to see the endless minority Parliament come to an end with a Tory majority.

It is now time for the Right Honourable Stephen Harper to produce a Conservative budget.  During the minority years, I suppose it was understandable that the Conservatives produced budgets that were not dissimilar to what a Liberal or NDP administration would have produced....after all, they didn't have a majority and couldn't really govern like they did.

The Harper Conservatives strayed from Conservative principles with boneheaded moves like cutting the GST.  People may not remember but the GST was originally supposed to be 9% (replacing the 13.5% Manufacturers Sales Tax).  It was a sound policy to bring in the GST as the MST served as a tariff on our own exports.  It was cut to 7% to make it more politically palatable despite the lack of merit behind such a move.

The Harper team cut the rate to 5%.  This was unnecessary and harmful to Canada's fiscal position.   It should go back to 7%...at least!  Further cuts in income taxes should wait as well.  Canada is in very good fiscal position only when compared with other G8 nations who are all basket cases.  Canada should lead the way in eliminating the deficit and aggressively paying down the debt...which is an immoral tax upon future generations.

The Hudak team provokes similar concerns.  Income tax cuts are a great idea......if we weren't running a 15 billion dollar deficit.  Tax cuts should wait, spending cuts should not.

Hudak is playing politics with energy prices and I don't like it at all.  Utility bills are going up because the cost of energy is going up around the world.  The Green Energy Act may have its flaws but it should not be scrapped entirely.  In fact, Ontario (and Canada) will become much more energy efficient if prices stay high.

Harper and Hudak talk a good game about fiscal responsibility.  As Conservatives they know exactly what the right things to say are.  One hopes that they actually put some of that fiscal responsibility into action.

If they do not, then they risk being labelled Tax and Spend Conservatives....and they will lose the votes of conservatives across the country.  Look south for an example.  This is what happened to George W Bush conservatives as they looked at the fiscal wreckage he had left.

Canada's Team - the Canucks

I haven't blogged about hockey in a while, strange considering it is my favourite sport.

I've never really been into cheering for the last Canadian team left in the playoffs.  For one thing, the Islanders were always my team.  For another, practically every team in the NHL has a roster that is filled with Canadians.  In fact, it's probable that some American based teams have more Canadians on the roster than some Canadian based teams.

That being said, I am changing pace this year.  I will be cheering for the Vancouver Canucks as Canada's sole remaining entry in the Stanley Cup Playoffs.

When one thinks of iconic Canadian teams, of course names like Les Canadiens and the Maple Leafs jump out. How can they not with names so, well so Canadian!!  The Canucks were the 3rd Canadian based NHL team (in the modern era) and they have not won a Cup in their 40 year existence.  (for the Leaf fans, that is 3 years less than Toronto's drought).  However they went to the finals twice losing to my Islanders in 82 and to the Rangers in 94.

When the Canucks entered the league in 1970, they did more than make another obviously Canadian name appear on the scene.  It was much more than that.  The Canucks hockey team arrived just before the daring "Crazy Canucks" downhill ski team arrived.   The Canucks were the first Canadian NHL team to exist west of Yonge Street, Toronto in the modern era.  The Leafs had always been the team of English Canada while the Habs were the team of French Canada.  Upper and Lower Canada now had to share the stage with a Western team.

Other teams have come and gone but none were so ostensibly Canadian as the Leafs, Canadiens and the Canucks.  Names matter:

Edmonton Oilers - so named cuz Alberta has a lot of oil.  A rather sad name.

Winnipeg Jets - the former WHA team actually became famous for the Europeans they had on the roster.

Quebec Nordiques - really?  Quebec City is populated by people of Nordic heritage?  Came as a surprise to me!

Ottawa Senators - the team named after our unelected Senators actually sport a picture of a Roman Centurion on their jerseys.  D'oh!!

Calgary Flames - this one annoys me the most.  The Atlanta Flames were so named because General Sherman burned down Atlanta at the end of the American Civil War.  So when the team moved to Calgary, they became the Calgary Flames???

The Canucks are led by the Sedin twins who are Swedish.  They were drafted by their then General Manager who was an American named Brian Burke.  Brian Burke now runs the Toronto Maple Leafs.

Still it has been 17 years since a Canadian team held a Stanley Cup victory parade.  That is too long.

Go Canucks!!!

Wither Journalism Again!!!

As most people who read/watch/listen to any news would know, last Saturday May 21st, 2011 was Judgment Day.  This was the day of rapture and the world would be coming to an end.   Apparently some nutjob of a preacher in Alameda, California said so and "journalists" the world over rushed to interview him and put him on the news.

Well as it turned out, the world did not end.  He now claims to have miscalculated.  Thus more ink (if ink is still used) was spilt on further reporting of Preacher Nut Job.

http://www.thestar.com/news/world/article/995652--preacher-says-he-was-5-months-off-judgment-day-will-occur-in-october?bn=1

Much has been written about the growing irrelevance of traditional media in the internet age.  Why watch CNN when you can follow the trending topics on Twitter?  Amidst the hand wringing about the death spiral of journalism, we find 'journalists' publishing stories about the end of the world as predicted by Preacher Nut Job.

I'd like to ask the major newspapers who reported on this story what their standards for reporting are?  Does any mentally ill person with a following deserve prime time interviews?  Perhaps the newspaper barons (if they still exist) feel they missed the boat on David Koresh and don't want to let the next one get away.

I am not merely expressing irritation through sarcasm.  There is a story about a man in New York who spent his life savings buying ads to let everyone know that the world was ending.  By giving a mainstream platform to people like this, there is a real risk of real harm being done to gullible people.  "Hey it must be true, the New York Times printed it!"

There are enough gullible people in this world (many of them working as journalists) that the media should have some standards for what they report.....or just get bought out by the National Enquirer.

Inspiration

I was considering blogging about my experience of running the Mississauga Marathon today.  About two kilometers into the race my perspective changed.

Amidst the sound of footsteps, I heard a most unusual sound of something else hitting the pavement.  I looked to my left and saw a young man with a brush cut not unlike one I wore in past life.  This young man was missing his left leg and the unusual sound I heard was the sound of his prosthetic limb hitting the ground.

I chatted with him briefly.  He is a member of the Royal Canadian Regiment (my old regiment) and he lost his leg just west of Kandahar about a year ago.  I took a picture during the run.

The picture is of terrible quality however you can see that he has an artificial limb and from the angle of the photo you can guess one important point......he was ahead of me!  This young man who lost his leg serving his country was leaving me behind.  My right knee hurt....he doesn't have a left knee.

I wanted to ask to have a picture taken with him at the end and ask if I could blog about him.  However he turned off as he was doing the half marathon.  He was long gone by the time I finished.

I wanted to tell him that he cut a very inspiring figure.  I suspect that he would have answered that he was just out for a run.  He seemed that matter of fact in the few minutes I spoke to him before he left me catching his dust.

Perhaps I'll get a chance to talk to him again at the Army Run weekend in Ottawa.  I had best get training if I want to keep up with him.

Armageddon!!!!

After all of my election rants, I was going to write something more upbeat as a change of pace for my next blog post.  However I have been distracted by the big news that is, apparently, front page worthy on many of the local news websites.

So what is this big news?  Did Osama get killed again? Did Jerusalem fall to the Romans?  No!!!  The big news is that the price of gas will go up overnight by 6.5 cents a litre.  How could this happen?   I've watched as a reporter on the street interview angry motorists filling up.  Those dastardly bankers with their "derivatives" were identified as possible culprits.  Hedge funds and other speculators could be in on it as well.  Then again maybe it's just the big oil companies conspiring to drive the economy into a recession such that they sell less of their product?  

Some perspective is always good.  When I lived in the UK, gasoline cost roughly three times as much in Ol blighty as in the Great White North.   With the change in exchange rates, the cost in the UK is now roughly double that which we pay in Canada.

Despite this enormous inequity in gas prices, Brits have not been reduced to donkey pulled wagons as their primary form of transportation.  Civilization has not crumbled and if you see people selling apples on the street, then you are probably in one of their somewhat charming street markets.

Brits (as well as other Europeans) have adjusted to these higher fuel prices by utilizing a very clever technology that few North Americans are aware of.  It is called the smaller car.   I saw many small model cars in Britain that aren't even available over here because the car companies know that they wouldn't sell.   General Motors actually makes some very high quality small cars (for Europe).  The Vauxhall Corsa is a very nice little car with good mileage.  However it is not practical to sell in North America as you cannot fit more than 8 cases of beer inside it.

I will not endear myself to my Conservative brethren he by saying this, but the truth of the matter is that our fuel prices should be much much higher.  If we ever want to break North America's addiction to tar sands and oil imported from countries ruled by dictators, then we simply have to consume less oil.  Hybrids are nice but they simply won't replace regular cars fast enough to make a big difference.  The only way to dramatically reduce oil consumption is by increasing its price.  Gas taxes should gradually go up to be on a par with European pump prices.

People will adjust.  They will drive smaller cars, take public transit, walk more and cycle more.  Necessity is the mother of invention and so I would expect that fuel efficiency will increase even on large SUV's.  

People will adjust, though they will probably still complain about gas prices as they walk along drinking a bottle of water that costs more per fluid ounce than the gas they just used to fill their car.

By the way, this massive 6.5 cent increase overnight that is so scandalous.....well I have a 50 litre tank.  So it will cost me a whopping $3.25 extra to fill up!!!

Looking Forward - Post Election

Canadians are now adjusting to a new political world where the Tories will govern with a majority for the first time since 1993.  The New Democratic Party will serve as the Opposition while the Liberals lick their wounds and the Bloc determines whether their existence is of any relevance anymore.

Canada has a fixed election law now so the Tories will govern for the next 4 years.  At that time, they will face the voters again.  I think that election will be a fait accompli.

The Federal scene is once again a three party system.  The new Parliament includes just 5 MP's in total who are not part of one of the three main parties.  This compares with around 50 in every Parliament since 93.

The prospects for the Liberals are not good.  They were decimated and landed in third place for the first time in their history.  Many of their potential new leaders lost last Monday.  Almost half of their suppporters from the Chretien years desserted them.  Even most Liberals are saying that it will take at least two elections to rebuild their party and brand.  It took over a decade for the right to unite and become a force again.  It will take the Liberals a similar amount of time.

The NDP rode a wave of enthusiasm in Quebec into their status as the Official Opposition.  However Quebecers are notoriously unstable with their massive mood swings. 

 In 2007 Quebecers made Mario Dumont's Action Democratique du Quebec the official opposition in the legislature.  The ADQ was criticized for being a one man show and for having too many candidates with little or no experience.....sound familiar?  In 2008, the ADQ was reduced back to a rump of 5 seats.  

This election will be a high water mark for Jack Layton and the NDP.  Already cracks are showing in their armour.  All major newspapers have run stories ridiculing the fact that several new NDP caucus members are not yet done with their undergraduate studies.  Their youngest member is also the youngest parliamentarian in Canadian history.  He is 19 and plans to quit his part time job at a golf course now that he is a Member of Parliament.  Ruth Ellen Brossad represents a 99% francophone riding but, apparently, she doesn't speak French.

Jack Layton will spend  a lot of time over the next four years managing his caucus.  However, even if he didn't have to waste time herding some unruly cats, he is very unlikely to increase his votes beyond the 30% that he got on election night.  Most Canadians know enough about the NDP to know that they are not a party that has a lot of strength on fiscal matters.  Canada may not be a Conservative country like America, however we are also not as left as much of Europe.  The Green Party won their first seat as well.  They will further split the vote on the left.  The NDP simply won't get enough traction to get to a government with all of these factors at play.

So by process of elimination, I come to the conclusion that Stephen Harper will win the 2015 election by default....pretty much what happened this time as well.  His opposition is weaker and it would take a miracle for some other party to form a government.  

I was telling people at work that I consider this to be in the range of 80% probability.   I'm thinking that might even be a bit on the low side.

Election Reflections

So the election campaign is now over except for the voting.

There has been much heated rhetoric and harsh things said.  (I am not innocent)

However as the campaign is now over, I'd like to offer some sober reflections and perspective.

First Canadians are very lucky to be living in a country with a well functioning democracy.  No it's not perfect and I'm not saying it is.  Perhaps proportional representation would be better?  Perhaps an American style system of checks and balances would be better?  Perhaps an elected Senate would improve things?

All in all, Canadians have a system that is vastly superior to the system of government under which the vast majority of the human race live under.  No country in Africa has a healthier democracy.  India and China together account for 40% of humanity.  The Islamic world is another fifth of the total.  There is some overlap but easily 60% of the human race is covered right there.  I haven't even mentioned Latin America and the rest of Asia.  Canada's system compares pretty well.

This is not to say that we should not seek to improve things.  Of course we should.  However, Stephen Harper is not Saddam Hussein.  Jack Layton is not Stalin and Duceppe is not Hitler.  Each of them came from modest roots and have made their mommas proud.

The country of my birth only achieved real democracy decades after a coalition of troops repelled a Communist invasion.  My long lost cousins in North Korea (if they exist) have never known a basic level of democracy.  In recent years we saw brave Iraqi and Afghan citizens brave bullets and bombs to vote.  In our parents' lifetimes Americans with darker skin braved beatings and intimidation to vote.

I saw an article in a Canadian newspaper that speculated on the effect upon voter turnout if rain is forecast for this election day.  In some ways it is sad that some will not brave raindrops when there are other people who will brace bullets to vote.  Though I suppose a healthy democracy might also be one where people feel safe in knowing that their fellow Canadians will make the right choice anyway.  I know I am stretching here but while I cannot respect not voting as a choice, I still feel very strongly that it is each individual's choice to make.



I hope that the Conservatives win a majority but I know well that it won't be armageddon if they don't.  I am proud to be Canadian and will be voting.  I hope others do as well, regardless of which party they support.

Election Time in Canada (Part 4)

Now the election is really getting interesting.  The insurgent Layton campaign really does appear to have legs.  The establishment Liberals are clearly in third place and the NDP is even closing in on the Conservatives in first place.

The response of the establishment mouthpieces should have been expected.  Both the Globe and the Star have published stories highlighting the foibles of some NDP candidates who were anonymous until now.  They have run several stories about one NDP candidate in Quebec who is employed as an assistant manager of a pub in Ottawa.  She is reportedly in Las Vegas, having booked a vacation before the writ was dropped.  As a single mother, we are told that she couldn't afford to cancel this vacation.  There are other candidates who went on vacation during the campaign and a couple of the NDP candidates in Quebec are still in University.

The real scandal here is the reporting and the poor candidates run by ALL of the major parties.  Anyone who has watched any election closely would know that the "national" parties who boast of fielding candidates in every riding often put up candidates who have no hope, no resources, no profile and (often) no campaign office.  Just exactly how well known or well funded is the Liberal candidate in Red Deer, Alberta?  Similarly, I wonder how 'good' the Conservative candidate is in York Centre (Bob Rae's riding).  All of the major parties run candidates who, in hockey, would be called pylons.

The truth is that the Conservatives are probably running credible candidates in no more than two thirds of the ridings.  I would guess that the Liberals are at about half and the NDP at much less than a third.

It is scandalous that our national parties run so many poor candidates.  It should surprise no one when a few very unqualified people are elected to Parliament.   Frankly the single mother/assistant pub manager (Ruth Ellen Brosseau is her name) running for the NDP may turn out to be far from the least qualified person elected.

It is scandalous that the reporting has focussed so much on such trivial matters.  It should not be surprising that people have warmed to Jack Layton's 'folksy' demeanour.....that's mainly what they are reporting on.  You have to read very diligently to see the reporting on the party platforms and some expert analysis on what it all means.

Yes Stephen Harper comes across as 'cold' yet 'competent.'  Michael Ignatieff is 'professorial' and 'aloof.'  Gilles Duceppe is 'cranky' and Jack Layton is 'folksy' and 'friendly.'

In those last two lines, I summarized about 90% of the reporting by the media.  Maybe the media could start reporting some more useful information and leave that kind of nonsense to bloggers?